Reds vs. Pirates Expert Pick 4/20/23

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Date: Thursday, April 20th, 6:35 ET
Location: PNC Park
TV: SNPT
Money Line: Reds +138/Pirates -163 (Make sure you’re betting dimelines!)
Total Line: 9

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Reds on Thursday, April 20th at PNC Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

	ML	RL	Total
	+138	+1.5	O 9 (-110)
	-163	-1.5	U 9 (-110)

Reds vs. Pirates Projected Lineup

	Batting Order	Position
Jonathan India	1	2B
TJ Friedl	2	LF
Jake Fraley	3	CF
Tyler Stephenson	4	C
Wil Myers	5	LF
Jason Vosler	6	3B
Spencer Steer	7	3B
Nick Senzel	8	CF
Jose Barrero	9	SS
Luke Weaver	–	SP

	Batting Order	Position
Ji Hwan Bae	1	2B
Bryan Reynolds	2	CF
Andrew McCutchen	3	LF
Carlos Santana	4	1B
Ke’Bryan Hayes	5	3B
Canaan Smith-Njigba	6	LF
Rodolfo Castro	7	2B
Jack Suwinski	8	RF
Jason Delay	9	C
Roansy Contreras	–	SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Cincinnati Reds: 7-11 SU / OU 11-7 / Runline 11-7
Pittsburgh Pirates: 12-7 SU / OU 10-9 / Runline 12-7

If the Reds are going to climb out of last place in the NL Central, they will need to turn things around with a win over the Pirates. Heading into the game, the Reds have lost two straight games and stand with an overall record of 7-11. On the road, the Reds are 1-5 and 6-6 at home. The team’s overall series record is 1-2.

• The Reds have two straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -0.9.
• The Reds have been favored in 22.2% of their games and have runline records of 6-6 and 5-1 at home and on the road, respectively
• The over has hit in 61% of the Reds’ 18 games at 11-7.

On a record of 12-7, the Pirates are 2nd in the NL Central. Currently, they are two games out of the division lead. Against the Reds, they will be seeking their 4th straight win. On the road, they have a record of 9-4 while going 3-3 at home. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 2-2.

• The Pirates have covered the runline in five straight games and have a season-long run margin of 1.0.
• The Pirates have been favored in 10.5% of their games and have runline records of 2-4 and 10-3 at home and on the road, respectively
• The over has hit in 53% of the Pirates’ 19 games at 10-9.

Pitching Matchup

Luke Weaver kicked off the previous season with the Diamondbacks but eventually ended up finishing the year with the Royals. He made 27 appearances, concluding the season with an ERA of 6.56 and a record of 1-1. Weaver needs to focus on preventing opposing teams from hitting for power this year if he wants to perform better. Last season, he finished with a slugging percentage allowed of .452.

With an overall record of 1-1, the Pirates will give Roansy Contreras the start. His ERA stands at 6.00 with a K/9 figure of 0.7 after making three appearances. Additionally, he has a FIP of 3.65 and an OBP of .391.

In his previous start, Roansy Contreras gave the team a quality start, allowing two runs on six hits across six innings. Despite this, he did not factor into the decision in the Pirates’ 6-3 win over the Cardinals.

Reds vs. Pirates Offense Outlook

Cincinnati heads into the game ranked just 26th in home runs having gone deep 15 times. The team’s collective batting average sits at .239, which is 19th in the league. In term of OPS, they are 28th in baseball on the road and 14th at home.

Cincinnati Reds Top Bats

Cincinnati Reds Top Hitters: Last Five Games

With a total of 25 home runs hit so far, the Pirates have established themselves as one of the leading home run hitting teams in baseball (6th). They are currently averaging 5.2 runs per game overall, with a collective batting average of .257. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .447 compared to .395 at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates Top Bats

Pittsburgh Pirates Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Free MLB Pick

The Cincinnati Reds haven’t scored in their last 18 innings and are 1-5 on the road this season. I don’t see them getting healthy against an up-in-comer in Roansy Contreras, who can be downright filthy when he’s on. I forecast the Pirates’ bats to be quiet Thursday, despite scoring 14 runs twice over their three-game road trip. This will be their first game home off a seven-game road trip in which they played yesterday and had to travel. I believe this game will be very low scoring and may not even exceed four runs in total, so I am happy to bet the UNDER 9. Note: If you’re betting Major League Baseball games, you REALLY need to get educated about dime lines! It’s IMPORTANT and FREE!