Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Analysis, Free Pick 5/7/24

Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
Date: Tuesday, May 7th, 7:20 ET
Location: Truist Park
TV: NESN
Money Line: Red Sox +146/Braves -176 (Do yourself a favor and learn about reduced juice!)
Total Line: 9

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Atlanta Braves and the Red Sox on Tuesday, May 7th at Truist Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:20 PM ET, the Braves and Red Sox will face off in an interleague matchup. Tuesday night’s matchup is taking place at Truist Park in Atlanta and features a Red Sox club that is 19-16 compared to the Braves at 20-12. Reynaldo Lopez is starting for the Braves, and he is up against Kutter Crawford for Boston.

Looking at the odds for Tuesday’s game, the over/under line is at 9 runs, and the Braves are favored at -176 on the money line. If you’re looking to catch this one on TV, it is being carried by NESN.

Red Sox vs. Braves Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Boston Red Sox: 19-16 SU / OU 14-18 / Runline 19-16
Atlanta Braves: 20-12 SU / OU 12-18 / Runline 15-17

Red Sox Records & Recent Play

Rafael Devers had a big game for the Red Sox in their 9-2 win over the Twins to close out their series. He went 2/5 with a homer and two RBIs. The Red Sox really broke things open with a four-run 8th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Red Sox were at +153.

Cooper Criswell got the start for the Red Sox, going 4 1/3 innings, and giving up just one run on five hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.

Boston opens their series vs. the Braves on the road, and they are 3rd in the AL East, 4.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. So far, they are 0-3 in divisional games. The Red Sox are 19-16 overall, and they lost two of three in their series vs. the Twins.

At home, the Red Sox are 7-9 this year compared to 12-7 on the road. As the underdog, Boston is 10-11 this year and 9-5 as the favorite. Heading into today’s game, they have an overall series record of 6-4-1.

When it comes to the run line, the Red Sox have been a better bet on the road than at home, going 13-6 vs. 6-10. They have been a better bet as an underdog (14-7) than as a favorite (5-9). Their average run margin is +1.2 runs per game, but in their losses, it drops to -3.2 runs per game.

With an over/under line of 9 runs, the Boston Red Sox have had an over/under record of 2-1-1 in games with that line this season. Overall, their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 14-18. In games where the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, the Red Sox have gone over the total twice, under once, and pushed once. So far this season, only 11.4% of their games have had an over/under line set at 9 runs.

Braves Records & Recent Play

Heading into their last game vs. the Dodgers, the Braves closed out the series with a 5-1 loss. Atlanta was the heavy favorite at -153 on the money line. Things started off well for the Braves, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Dodgers scored twice in the bottom of the first.

Max Fried had a rough outing, giving up four earned runs on seven hits and issuing three walks. He also hit a batter and took the loss. The Braves’s offense scored their only run on a Marcell Ozuna homer in the 1st inning but didn’t score again the rest of the game.

With an overall record of 20-12, the Braves are 2nd in the NL East, three games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Atlanta will host the Red Sox today having dropped three straight games, and they were swept by the Dodgers in their most recent series.

So far, the Braves have been good against other NL East teams, putting up an 8-4 record. At home, they are 11-4 this season compared to 9-8 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 20-10 and are 0-2 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, they are 7-3-1 in series this year.

When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. They are 15-17 against the run line this season, but they are just 6-9 against the run line at home. As the favorite, they are 14-16 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are just 1-1.

The Braves have played 30 games this season, and 14 of those games have had over/under lines set at 9 or lower. In those games, the over/under record is 2-5-1. The Braves have gone under in their last three games with lines set at 9 or lower.

Pitching Matchup

Boston is sending right-hander Kutter Crawford to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 1.56. Opposing batters are hitting .201 this season off Crawford. In his last outing, Crawford pitched well, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs. He got the win in that outing. Looking back over his last three starts, Crawford has given up a total of four earned runs. So far, he has made four quality starts and is averaging 8.93 strikeouts per nine innings.

Reynaldo López is getting the start for the Braves at home against the Red Sox. He has been solid in his first two outings, picking up a win over the Astros and then going 7 innings and giving up just 1 run in his last start against the Marlins. He did take a loss in his most recent outing, going 5 innings and giving up 3 runs on 6 hits.

Red Sox vs. Braves Offense Outlook

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .246, which is 8th in the league, and have the 6th best on-base percentage in the league. One of the reasons for their success this season has been their ability to limit strikeouts, as they are 25th in the league in strikeouts per game.

Over the team’s last nine games, Ceddanne Rafaela has gone 10/33 (.303) with two homers and nine RBIs. This has helped him move into the top spot on the team’s home run leaderboard, although he is batting just .202 for the season. Tyler O’Neill has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/34 with two homers in his last nine games. For the season, O’Neill is batting .297 and has gone deep nine times.

Heading into today’s game, the Braves are the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .258, which is the 4th best mark in the league. The Braves also have the league’s top team BABIP and have the 3rd best slugging percentage in the league.

Marcell Ozuna has been the league’s top run producer so far, with 33 RBIs and is also 2nd in the league with 10 home runs. For the season, he is batting .306. However, he has gone just 3/21 in his last six games. Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr. have each hit one home run in their last six games, with Riley batting .250 and Acuna Jr. hitting .320. Orlando Arcia comes into the game with a three-game hitting streak.

Free Red Sox vs. Braves MLB Pick

Our prediction for this Red Sox vs. Braves matchup is to take the over, with the line sitting at 9 runs. We have the Braves winning this one by a score of 6-5, which gives us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Reynaldo López finishing with five strikeouts compared to Kutter Crawford with six. However, we have Crawford going six innings and López going just five.

As for a money line pick, we would take the Braves at -176. However, given the risk versus reward, we prefer the Over.

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