Rays vs. Mets MLB Betting Preview, Odds, and Predictions 5/4/24

New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Date: Saturday, May 4th, 7:15 ET
Location: Tropicana Field
TV: FOX
Money Line: Mets -104/Rays -117
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Mets on Saturday, May 4th at Tropicana Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:15 PM from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have an interleague matchup between the Mets and Rays. Heading into Saturday’s game, the Mets are 16-16, while the Rays are below .500 at 15-18. Christian Scott is starting for the Mets, and he will be facing off against Zack Littell.

FOX is handling TV coverage for tonight’s game, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. The Rays are the slight favorite on the money line at -117. Looking at the money line odds for the Mets, they are sitting at -104.

Mets vs. Rays Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Mets: 16-16 SU / OU 16-16 / Runline 16-16
Tampa Bay Rays: 15-18 SU / OU 19-14 / Runline 12-21

Tampa Bay picked up a 10-8 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a huge 3rd inning, scoring five of their ten runs. As for the Mets, they scored four of their eight runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Rays were favored at -149 on the money line.

Aaron Civale got the start for the Rays, going just 4 2/3 innings while giving up seven runs and striking out five. He did pick up a win in the game, as Shawn Armstrong got the save. Jose Quintana had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss after going just 2 2/3 innings and giving up eight runs.

Tampa Bay’s offense was led by Randy Arozarena and Amed Rosario, as they were the only two Rays hitters to have more than one hit. Brett Baty had a two-home run performance for the Mets.

Mets Records & Recent Play

The Mets are at an even 16-16 overall as they take on the Rays today, and they are 5.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they are 2-1 in divisional games. New York is closing out their series vs. the Rays today, and they are currently the road team.

At home, the Mets are 9-10 this year and have gone 7-6 on the road. New York has won two straight games as the favorite, and they are 10-8 overall as the favorite. As for their record as the underdog, the Mets are 6-8. They have an overall series record of 5-4-1 this year, and they are 4-6 in their last 10 games overall.

When the Mets win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.4 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.1 runs per game. Overall, their run line record is 16-16, and they have been a better bet on the run line on the road (8-5) than at home (8-11).

The Mets’ over/under record is now 16-16 after their last two games went over the total. The over/under line for today’s game is 8 runs, which is the same as their average over/under line for the season. The Mets’ games have had an average combined run total of 8.8 runs per game this season.

Rays Records & Recent Play

Tampa Bay is hosting the Mets today with an overall record of 15-18, which has them 5th in the AL East. Currently, they are 6.5 games behind the Orioles for the lead in the division. So far, they are 3-4 in divisional games. The Rays have won two straight games at home and are 2-1 as the home underdog this year.

As the favorite, the Rays are 11-14 this year and 4-4 as the underdog. Looking at their most recent games, the Rays are just 3-7 and have dropped four straight series.

When the Rays win, they win big, with an average run margin of 2.3 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 4.2 runs per game. Their run line record is 12-21, with a 6-12 mark at home and a 6-9 record on the road. They have won two in a row against the run line at home, but are just 5-3 as the underdog and 7-18 as the favorite.

The Tampa Bay Rays have an over/under record of 19-14 this season, and their games have averaged 9.1 runs per contest. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone over the total in 6 of 8 games. Overall, 57.6% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs.

Pitching Matchup

The Mets will be sending Christian Scott to the mound today against the Rays. He’s eager to kick off his season with a solid performance, marking his debut for the year.

The Rays are sending Zack Littell to the mound today vs. the Mets, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the White Sox. In that start, he gave up two earned runs, six hits, and took the loss in six innings of work. Littell has given up at least one homer in each of his last three outings. Overall, he has made six starts, and his ERA is 3.27. Littell’s record for the season is 1-2. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.55 strikeouts and just 1.36 walks.

Mets vs. Rays Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. However, they have been much better on the road, averaging 5.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .238, which is 13th in the league, and are 9th in home runs. New York’s offense has been very good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 3rd in the league in this category.

Over the past six games, Brett Baty has gone 6/17 with two homers and four RBIs. This has helped him move into the team’s home run lead. Pete Alonso is also near the top of the league in homers, but he is batting just .220 for the season. Brandon Nimmo has 20 RBIs for the Mets this season, which is 10th in the league, and comes in with a strong on-base percentage of .366.

So far this season, the Rays offense has been just 21st in the league in runs scored, averaging 3.9 runs per contest. Their team batting average of .243 is 10th in the league, and they have been pretty good at putting the ball in play, as their team BABIP of .31 is the 5th best mark in the league. The Rays have been better at home this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 13th in the league.

Isaac Paredes has been a bright spot for the Rays this season, as he is batting .283 and is 4th in the league with seven home runs. He also comes into the game on a nice stretch, going 11/33 in his last eight games. Amed Rosario is also swinging a hot bat right now, as he has gone 9/25 in his last seven games and is batting .309 for the season. However, Randy Arozarena is batting just .145 for the season and has gone 4/30 in his last nine games.

Free Mets vs. Rays MLB Pick

Our prediction for today’s Mets vs. Rays matchup is to take the Rays on the money line at -117. We have the Rays winning this one by a score of 5-4, and with the payout for a Rays win at -117, we feel there is some good value in this matchup.

If you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could look at Zack Littell’s strikeout numbers. Our projections have him finishing with four strikeouts, which would have him as the sixth-worst starter in terms of K’s today.