Rays vs. Guardians Prediction & MLB Pick | 9/12/24

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Date: Thursday, September 12th, 7:15 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: FOX
Money Line: TB +121/Cle -142
Total Line: 8

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Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Cleveland Guardians and the Rays on Thursday, September 12th at Progressive Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Thursday’s matchup between the Rays and Guardians is set to get started at 7:15 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are currently on a three-game winning streak and are 84-62 overall, while the Rays have lost three straight and are 71-75.

FOX will be televising Thursday’s game, and the Guardians are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -142. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and Thursday’s starting pitching matchup features Ryan Pepiot for the Rays and Gavin Williams for the Guardians.

Rays vs. Guardians Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Tampa Bay Rays: 71-75 SU / OU 65-73 / Runline 75-71
Cleveland Guardians: 84-62 SU / OU 66-69 / Runline 74-72

Rays Records & Recent Play

The Rays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Phillies with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Phillies scored two runs in the bottom of the 7th. Tampa Bay was the +191 underdog going into this road game.

Shane Baz got the start for the Rays and took the loss. He pitched well, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just two runs on three hits. However, the Rays’ offense could only score two runs, and Jonathan Aranda’s homer was wasted. The Rays also had only three other hits, all of which were singles.

Tampa Bay is 71-75 overall and trails the Yankees by 13 games in the AL East. The Rays have dropped three straight games, losing the final game of their series vs. the Phillies and the first two games of this losing streak vs. the Guardians. In the AL East, they are 4th and trail the Red Sox by three games for the final Wild Card spot.

At home, the Rays are 37-38 this season and 34-37 on the road. As the underdog, Tampa Bay is 36-45 this year and 35-30 as the favorite. Their overall series record is 22-19-6 heading into today’s game.

When betting on the Rays’ run line this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 41-30 vs. the run line. Their average run margin is -0.4 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 75-71 overall. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 51-30 vs. the run line in those games.

When the Tampa Bay Rays are on the road, they have a combined run average of 8.1, and their over/under record is 65-73. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 16-20-1. This season, 46 of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, which accounts for 31.5% of their games.

Guardians Records & Recent Play

The Guardians’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the White Sox, closing out their series with a 6-4 win. After scoring two runs in the 1st inning, the Guardians added another three runs in the 3rd to take a big lead. Cleveland was the -238 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Matthew Boyd got the start for the Guardians, going 4 1/3 innings, and picked up the win. He only gave up one run on six hits and issued just two walks. Austin Hedges had only one hit, but it was a home run, and Lane Thomas had a big day at thejson, going 3/4 with a run scored and four RBIs.

Cleveland is hosting the Rays today with an overall record of 84-62, which has them leading the AL Central by 4.5 games. The Guardians are riding a three-game winning streak, and they closed out their series vs. the White Sox with three straight wins. So far, they are 27-21 against other teams in the AL Central.

As the home team, the Guardians have gone 43-25 this season compared to 41-37 on the road. The Guardians have been good as the favorite this year, going 59-30, and they are 38-18 as the favorite at home. So far, their overall series record is 27-15-5.

The Guardians have been a solid run line bet this season, going 74-72 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 41-37 against the run line. They have covered the run line in their last five games, and their average run differential in their wins is +3.3 runs per game.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the Cleveland Guardians’ game against the Tampa Bay Rays is right in line with their season average of 8 runs per game. The Guardians have played 69 games with over/under lines set at 8 runs, going 13-15-6 in those contests. Overall, Cleveland’s games have gone over the total 66 times this season, and their average over/under line is 8 runs per game.

Pitching Matchup

Ryan Pepiot is looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the Orioles and picked up the win. In that start, he went 5 1/3 innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Pepiot has made 22 starts and has a record of 8-6. His ERA for the season is 3.66, along with a WHIP of 1.14. Opposing batters are hitting .207 off the right-hander this year. Pepiot has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has given up 16 homers and is averaging 3.19 walks per nine innings.

Cleveland is sending Gavin Williams to the mound today vs. the Rays, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Dodgers. In that start, he went just two-thirds of an inning, giving up five earned runs, and taking the loss. Before that outing, he had pitched well, picking up the win vs. the Royals and giving up just one earned run in seven innings of work. Williams’ record for the season is 3-8, and his ERA is 5.25. Out of his 13 starts, he has turned in three quality starts and is averaging 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Rays vs. Guardians Offense Outlook

For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and batting average. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, including Jonny DeLuca and Yandy Diaz. DeLuca has gone 13/36 in his last 10 games, while Diaz is 11/31 in his last eight games.

Yandy Diaz comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak and is batting .281 for the season. He has gone deep 14 times, which is 3rd most on the team. Christopher Morel and Jose Siri are also near the top of the team’s home run leaderboard, but both are batting under .200 for the season.

Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 34 homers are 8th in the league, and Naylor’s 29 is 12th. Ramirez’s 106 RBIs are 2nd in the MLB, while Naylor’s 101 RBIs are 5th. Over his last seven games, Lane Thomas has gone 10/28 with two homers and 10 RBIs.

For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .239, but their team on-base percentage and slugging percentages are all right around the league average.

Free Rays vs. Guardians MLB Pick

Looking across Thursday’s small slate of games, the one I like the most is to take the Guardians in some fashion. At -142, I still see there being value in a money line play. However, I’m feeling good about Cleveland winning this one by multiple runs. My play for the day, is to take the Guardians to cover the run line and go for the higher payout.

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