Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 8/2/21

When: 8:10 p.m., Monday, August 2

Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee

Moneyline: PIT +200/MIL -220

Runline: Pirates +1.5/Brewers -1.5

Total: 9

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Starting Pitchers: Bryse Wilson (2-3, 4.83 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) vs. Eric Lauer (3-4, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

Thrown to the Wolves

Bryse Wilson makes the move to western Pennsylvania, and the former Brave could hardly be stepping into a worse situation. He joins the Pirates just in time to make a start against the Brewers, who have won seven of their past nine and just faced the Pirates last week at PNC Park, where they put up 28 runs in three games, compared to just three for the Buccos.
Of course, Wilson has spent a good chunk of this season in Triple-A, so he’ll be used to the talent levels around him, but he was doing that with Triple-A players in the opposing lineup as well. Granted, Milwaukee’s hitting has been far from great in 2021, but the Brewers seem to be hitting their stride right now after lighting up Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and the White Sox over the past ten days. It’s a rather long way from an ideal situation.

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Wearing Two Hats

Eric Lauer does most of his work as a starter, but he’s been effective as a reliever as well, having come in for a hold in a 7-3 win over Pittsburgh on July 28. That could give him an edge in this start, as Lauer’s already seen the Pirates’ lineup in the past few days and knows that he was able to handle it in relief. During that appearance, Lauer faced 11 batters and recorded nine outs, with his only mistake being a solo home run by Starlin Castro in the seventh.

Over the past month, Lauer has been reasonably effective, giving up just three runs in his past five appearances. Two of those did come against Pittsburgh, but that’s also because he’s thrown 9.1 innings against the Pirates. If Lauer can get five or six innings and hold the Pirates to two runs or less, the Brewers will be very happy with that.

In and Out

Looking to get a quick win and move on to something else? Consider taking the Brewers first-five, as Milwaukee has been dynamite there as of late. The Brewers have gone 9-2-2 on the first-five moneyline over their past 13 games and have lost just once in the past 10. The Pirates, on the other hand, are just as capable of losing the first five bet as they are of losing over nine innings, as they’re the National League’s worst at getting the lead through five innings (thank you, Rangers).
Pittsburgh is just 31-56-15 on the year in the first five, and the only reason the Pirates rank 25th in ROI is because the books give great odds on Pittsburgh whenever the Pirates do stumble into the lead. That doesn’t happen often away from home; the Pirates are 14-31-7 in the first five away from home, again only better than Texas.

Betting Trends

• The Pirates are 15-38 in their past 53 against the NL Central.
• The Pirates are 24-64 in their past 88 road games.
• The Brewers are 4-1 in their past five games as a favorite.
• The Brewers are 39-18 in their past 57 games overall.
• The over is 4-1 in the Pirates; past five road games.
• The over is 21-9-1 in the Pirates’ past 31 Monday games.
• The over is 5-0-1 in the Brewers’ past six against the NL Central.
• The under is 8-1-2 in the Brewers’ past 11 home games.
• The Pirates are 34-88 in their past 122 trips to Milwaukee.
• The over is 21-7-4 in the past 32 meetings.

Weather Report

This should be a beautiful night in Wisconsin, with temperatures at 72 degrees and wind blowing in from right-center at six miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

The Pirates got hammered by the Phillies on Sunday and now have to play a team that’s playing outstanding baseball and just crushed them in three straight at home. Milwaukee might not be a team known for its offense, but Pittsburgh is a royal mess on defense right now, and the trades at the deadline certainly didn’t help the Pirates in their run prevention efforts.
With Pittsburgh reeling and losing four of their past six by some embarrassing margins, it’s a good time to take Milwaukee to put up a large number. I’d back either the Brewers on the runline or combine the Brewers with the over for a large payout. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by depositing $100 and getting a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook when you use bonus code PREDICT100.