Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 6/11/21

Pittsburgh Pirates (23-38) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (35-27)

When: 8:10 p.m., Friday, June 11

Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee

Moneyline: PIT +235/MIL -278 (BetNow – 100% Bonus up to $1000!)

Runline: Pirates +1.5/Brewers -1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Chase de Jong (0-0, 5.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. Brandon Woodruff (4-2, 1.42 ERA, 0.74 WHIP)

Shooting the Breeze

You know you’ve been having a strong year when giving up six hits, and two runs is considered a subpar day for you. That’s where Brandon Woodruff has been throughout 2021, as only his first start of the season saw him give up as many as three runs. Since then, Woodruff has been sawing through whatever lineup he faces, and he’s usually done it by missing a lot of bats.
In five of his past six trips to the rubber, Woodruff has struck out at least eight and has given up a total of five earned runs over his past six starts. He’s been as reliable a bet as it gets, which is why the total is as low as it’s projected to be. The numbers seem to bear out the suggestions that the under might cash again in a Woodruff start, as four of his past five starts have seen five runs or less scored by both teams in question.
At the same time, it might also be a good idea to take a shot on Woodruff’s strikeout totals, depending on what you can get. Woodruff has fanned eight or more hitters in five of his past six starts, and the one he didn’t was the last time that the Brewers lost a game that he started.

Bringing Up a Body

It’s hard to understand why Chase de Jong was the one who was brought up to the Pirates and placed in the rotation, given that he wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire at Triple-A Indianapolis. He seemed to be going in the wrong direction right before his call-up, as he gave up five earned runs in three innings in his penultimate start at the Triple-A level.
So far, his results with Pittsburgh have been mixed at best. On the one hand, he did only give up a single earned run in a loss to Colorado, but on the other, he showed himself to be very hittable in giving up five earned runs in a win over Miami. Milwaukee doesn’t hit anywhere near as well as those teams, so this might be a great time for de Jong to make a statement and prove he has the ability to get the job done.

Keep Your Foes Closer

This might not be that much of a trend because pretty much everyone has seemingly found something to pick apart against the Pirates. But the reality is that nobody has done a better job of feasting on the Pirates’ AAAA-caliber roster than the four other teams of the NL Central, including the Brewers. For the year, Pittsburgh is a mere 7-19 against the division, and with three teams above .500 and a fourth on the cusp of getting there, the Central is likely to be determined mostly by how many wins a team is able to get against the Pirates.

Betting Trends

• The Pirates are 16-35 in their past 51 against the NL Central.
• The Pirates are 5-14 in their past 19 Friday games.
• The Brewers have won five straight games as a favorite.
• The Brewers have won their past four home games.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Pirates’ past seven road games.
• The over is 7-3 in the Brewers’ past ten games as a home favorite.
• The over is 14-5-3 in the teams’ past 22 matchups.
• The Pirates are 34-85 in their past 119 trips to Milwaukee.
• The under is 11-2 in the teams’ past 13 meetings.

Weather Report

Weather won’t be much of a problem in this game. Either the Brewers will elect to close the roof, or the teams will be playing in 77 degree weather at the first pitch, with the wind blowing in from right-center at six miles per hour.

Dan’s pick

I can see why Milwaukee is a huge favorite to claim this one, given that Woodruff is going to the mound and the Pirates continue to struggle to get much of anything done. However, with that being the case, it might be a good idea to go for the runline, as there simply isn’t any value in taking the Brewers to win right now.
Milwaukee’s not a great offensive team, but with Woodruff on the hill, it might not matter. Winning by two or more should be doable for Milwaukee, and I’ll take the Brewers to do it.