Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 4/27/19

Pittsburgh Pirates (12-12) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (17-11), 4/27/19
Time: 9:10 pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Clay Kershaw (0-0, 2.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) vs. Joe Musgrove (1-1, 1.59, 0.85)
TV: SportsNet Pittsburgh, SportsNet LA

Moneyline: Dodgers -200/Pirates +180 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under: 7

The LA Dodgers grabbed the opener of this three-game series with Pittsburgh as heavy favorites Friday night, and they’re even heavier for Saturday night’s game with ace Clay Kershaw hitting the hill. Which way are we going here with our free baseball predictions?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Kershaw at around -190 over Pittsburgh and Musgrove, with an over/under of 7 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line a dime, up to -200.

The Dodgers could also be found getting around +100 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Pirates vs. Dodgers Set-Up

LA took the opener of this series Friday night 6-2, cashing as a -180 favorite on the MLB betting line and covering against the run line at a price of +110. Pittsburgh actually took a 1-0 lead in the top of the first inning Friday night, but the Dodgers immediately answered with two runs in the bottom of the first, then pulled away with a three-spot in the bottom of the fourth.

Friday’s game also played over a total of 7.5 runs in that Los Angeles fourth inning.

With Friday’s loss, Pittsburgh now owns a six-game losing streak. At 12-12 overall the Pirates trail first-place St. Louis by 2.5 games in the NL Central.

Even with Friday’s victory, LA is only 3-3 over its last six games. But at 17-11 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by a half-game over second-place Arizona.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Los Angeles took the season series from Pittsburgh five games to one.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Kershaw is 2/2 on quality starts this season, after doing a stint on the DL. Last Sunday he held Milwaukee to two runs and just two hits through six innings of a 6-5 Dodgers victory, and in his season debut six days before that he held Cincinnati to two runs and five hits through seven innings of a 4-3 Los Angeles win.

So LA is 2-0 with Kershaw so far this season.

In his only start against the Pirates last year Kershaw allowed just two runs and four hits through six innings of an 8-3 Los Angeles victory.

Musgrove, by our stringent standards, is three-for-four on quality starts this season. Monday he gave up three runs and five hits through six innings of a game Pittsburgh eventually lost to Arizona 12-4. But through his first three starts of this season, Musgrove only allowed two earned runs and 13 hits through 20 1/3 innings, with 20 strikeouts.

The Pirates are 2-2 with Musgrove this season, but he deserves one win better.

In his only career start against the Dodgers, last June, Musgrove gave up three ER and six hits, including two home runs, through five frames of a 5-0 Pittsburgh defeat.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

Pittsburgh is batting .229/.275/.330 this season against left-handed pitching. This lineup has also produced just 33 runs total over its last 12 games.

Los Angeles is batting .268/.358/.495 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least six runs in three of its last five games.

The Bullpens

The Pirates bullpen owns a 4.36 ERA this season, along with a 1.32 WHIP and a 97/29 K/BB ratio.

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.874 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and a 99/30 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

• The unders are 14-10 in Pirates games this season.
• The overs are 15-13 in Dodgers games this season.
• The overs are 8-6 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.
• The overs finished 5-1 in Pirates-Dodgers games last season.

Free MLB Pick

Kershaw’s been tough through his first two starts this season, and Pittsburgh is having a really tough time scoring runs. So we’re going with Los Angeles here. But we don’t like giving that much on the money line on any baseball game. So we’ll chase the better price and play the Dodgers against the MLB run line.