Pirates vs. Brewers Moneyline Bet for July 11th

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Thursday, July 11th, 2:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: SN PT
Money Line: Pirates -125/Brewers +106
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pirates on Thursday, July 11th at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Thursday’s matchup between the Pirates and Brewers is set to get started at 2:10 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI. The Brewers are currently 1st in the NL Central with a record of 54-39, while the Pirates are 3rd in the division at 44-48.

The over/under line for Thursday’s game is currently at 7.5 runs, and the Brewers are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at +106. The money line odds for a Pirates win are at -125. Aaron Civale is starting for the Brewers, and he is facing off against Paul Skene for the Pirates. SN PT is carrying this game on TV.

Pirates vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Pittsburgh Pirates: 44-48 SU / OU 44-47 / Runline 50-42
Milwaukee Brewers: 54-39 SU / OU 50-39 / Runline 48-45

It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Pirates by a score of 9-0. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Pirates and struck out six more times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -161 on the money line.

This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Tobias Myers for the Brewers and Martin Perez for the Pirates. Myers went eight innings and didn’t give up a run as he picked up a win in the game. Perez only went 4 2/3 innings and gave up five earned runs, taking the loss.

Milwaukee’s two homers in the game came from Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins. Adames, Sal Frelick, and Andruw Monasterio each had two RBIs for the Brewers’ offense.

Pirates Records & Recent Play

Pittsburgh is 44-48 overall and 9.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Pirates are 14-14 against other teams in the NL Central this year. So far, they have been able to win three straight games as the favorite, and they are 18-19 when favored this year.

The Pirates are 22-24 both at home and on the road this year. They are 11-12-5 in series this year, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall. So far in this series vs. the Brewers, the Pirates have dropped the first game but bounced back to win game two.

The Pirates have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 50-42 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 27-19. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been a better bet as an underdog than as a favorite. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.4, while it is -3.6 in losses.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road today against the Milwaukee Brewers. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.5 runs per game this season. The Pirates have a 44-47 over/under record on the year, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Pirates have gone over the total in 6 of 17 games. Overall, 73.9% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. The over has hit in their last three games.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

Milwaukee is currently 54-39 overall and leads the NL Central by 5.5 games over the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 21-11 against other teams in the division. The Brewers have been good at home this year, going 28-14, and they are just over .500 on the road at 26-25.

The Brewers have an overall series record of 16-9-3 this year, and they are 22-20 as the underdog. As for their record when favored, the Brewers are 32-19 this year. They have split the first two games of this series vs. the Pirates and are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

When the Brewers win, they do so by an average of 3.5 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of -2.9 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 48-45, but they are 21-21 at home and 27-24 on the road. They are 21-30 against the run line as the favorite and 27-15 as the underdog.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been a consistent over team this season, with a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. Their over/under record is 50-39, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 14 times and under 4 times. Overall, 75.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. The over has hit in their last three games.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Paul Skenes gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Brewers on the road. Skenes has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 5-0 with an ERA of 2.12. In his 10 appearances, he has turned in eight quality starts and is coming off a game in which he gave up just two earned runs in seven innings of work. Skenes has been especially tough on the road, coming in with a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 1.12. At home, his ERA is 3.17. Per nine innings, Skenes is averaging 11.83 strikeouts and just 1.82 walks.

Through 18 starts, Aaron Civale has a record of 2-6 and an ERA of 5.18. He has made three quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. In that start vs. the Dodgers, he gave up three homers. Civale has made 18 appearances this year and has a WHIP of 1.39. Opponents are batting .266 off the right-hander this year. Civale has a BB/9 figure of 2.93 compared to 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings.

Pirates vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, the Pirates are batting just .230, which is 17th in the league, and their on-base percentage of .298 is also below average. However, they do have the league’s 12th ranked home run total.

Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top hitter this season, batting .280 with a team-high 17 homers and 56 RBIs. Oneil Cruz is also a threat in the lineup, as he has 14 homers and is batting .247. Over his last 10 games, Rowdy Tellez has been hot, batting .375 with five homers and 10 RBIs. He also comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak.

Christian Yelich has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers, hitting .391 with three homers over his last seven games. For the season, he is batting .335 with 11 homers, which is 2nd on the team. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are tied for the team lead with 14 homers, but Adames is batting just .240, and Hoskins is hitting only .218.

As a team, the Brewers are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .257, which is the 4th best mark in the MLB. Milwaukee’s team on-base percentage of .334 is the best in the league.

Free Pirates vs. Brewers MLB Pick

With the money line sitting where it is, there is a ton of value in taking the Pirates to pick up a win today over the Brewers. Milwaukee took game two of this series last night, but they did almost all of their damage with two out hits. They are going to have a tough time coming up with timely hits against Pirates starter Paul Skenes. Look for the Brewers’ bats to go silent, and the Pirates to do enough vs. Aaron Civale. I like Pittsburgh on the money line.