MLB Pick: Phillies at Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Date: 8/8/18
Time: 3:40 PM ET
Where: Chase Field. Phoenix, Arizona.
Listed Pitchers: Velasquez (PHI) & Corbin (AZ)
TV: FOX Sports – Arizona
Moneyline: PHI (+134) / AZ (-149) (Better odds found with s 10¢ Sportsbook)
Over/Under: 7.5

We’ve got a date in the desert tomorrow afternoon when the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. This is the final game of a three-game set, and the sixth and final Regular Season meeting between these two clubs. The Visitor’s redeemed themselves last night, bouncing back from Monday’s devastating loss with a 5-2 victory. Consequently, Arizona still leads the season series 3-2. They’ve outscored the Phillies 24-18 thru five games. Both squads are right in the thick of the incredibly competitive National League push for the playoffs. Every game counts, so expect to see a playoff-like atmosphere in this one as we near the home stretch of the MLB Season.

Philadelphia was a heavy underdog in last night’s contest against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but Nick Pivetta (7-9, 4.51 ERA & 1.28 WHIP) put on one of his best performances of the year. The right-hander struck out six while allowing just one free pass in six scoreless frames, earning his seventh win of the year. Arizona’s Zack Greinke was a tough-luck loser, allowing just three hits and one earned run over seven solid innings. Nick Williams (.260 AVG, 16 HR, 44 RBI & .332 OBP) was the only Philadelphia player to get to Greinke, when he jacked a solo-shot to kickstart the top of the third inning. The Phillies exploded for four runs in the top of the eighth to take a commanding 5-0 lead. Then, the D-backs bounced back in the bottom of the frame with two runs of their own. However, that’s all they’d be able to muster up in their comeback effort. Philadelphia’s Pat Neshek (1-0, 0.73 ERA & 0.89 WHIP) wrapped up the rest and earned himself the save.

Overall, the Phillies are 64-49 (.566) and atop the National League East Division. Philadelphia’s clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies own the second-best record in the NL behind only the Chicago Cubs. Winners in six of their last seven, the Phillies are outscoring opponents 33-15 during their impressive stretch. Since the All-Star break, the NL East Leader has gone 11-7 (.611). Philadelphia’s been subpar on the road this season, accruing a 26-31 (.456) record thus far.

The Diamondbacks are 63-52 (.548) this season, which has them set in second place in the NL West Standings just half a game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. Arizona’s also just a half game behind the Atlanta Braves for the second and final NL Wild Card spot. Mediocrity’s been the theme recently as the D-backs are 4-4 (.500) in their past eight games. Post All-Star break, the Snakes are 11-8 (.579) thus far. At home, Arizona’s 31-29 (.517) this year. In order to keep the pace in the National League West, the D-backs are going to need continued exceptional play from David Peralta (.300 AVG, 19 HR, 56 RBI & .356 OBP). He’s been sensational in this series, going 6 for 11 (.545) with two homers and two RBI. In Monday night’s game in which Philadelphia blew a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth, Peralta hit two dingers and was the hero. His walk-off solo-smash in the bottom of the 14th sent the hometown fans home happy.

Vince Velasquez (8-8, 3.80 ERA & 1.20 WHIP) is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Phillies this afternoon. This will be the second time the young right-hander’s faced the D-backs this year, and he hopes it turns out better than last time. On April 24th, Velasquez allowed four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss versus Arizona. In nine road starts this year, Velasquez is 2-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He’s sporting a tidy 3:1 strikeouts to walks ratio and is ranked 10th in the NL in strikeouts (129) and WHIP (1.20). Velasquez has been phenomenal lately. In his five most recent starts, he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At Chase Field, Velasquez is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

Lefty Patrick Corbin (8-4, 3.31 ERA & 1.06 WHIP) is the starter for the D-backs in this one. In 12 home starts, Corbin’s accrued a 5-3 record coupled with a 3.60 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. For the season, Corbin’s sporting a stellar 4.7:1 strikeouts to walks ratio. He’s second in the NL in strikeouts (174) and fifth in WHIP (1.06). Corbin’s .667 winning percentage is sixth-best amongst National League starters. Over his past three starts, Corbin’s gone 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. In four career starts versus Philadelphia, Corbin’s 2-2 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

I think this game is a complete 50-50 toss up and has the making of a top-notch pitching duel. Velasquez has quietly been sensational over the past month, and Corbin has put up career numbers for the D-backs this year. Expect a monumental number of strikeouts in this one, which might be an opportunity for a nice prop-bet. Arizona’s the favorite at -149 on the money line, which means they’d need to win 59.8% of the time for betting on them to be profitable. So, there’s negative value on them (-9.8%). Philadelphia’s the underdog at +134, which means they’d need to win just 42.7% of the time to make betting on them worthwhile. Since this one is virtually a coin flip, there’s a 7.3% edge with the Phillies on the money line. Velasquez has been brilliant and seeks payback for a loss earlier in the year to the D-backs when he was in pitiful form. If the Phillies didn’t blow a two-run lead in the ninth inning Monday, they’d be going for a series sweep Wednesday afternoon. However, they did blow the lead and Wednesday’s rubber-match should be a dandy. Look for the dog to have its day out in the desert: MLB Pick Philadelphia +134.