MLB Pick: NY Yankees vs Oakland A’s

Time: 4:05 PM ET
Where: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA
Listed Pitchers: CC Sabathia (NY) & Trevor Cahill (Oak)
TV: ESPN, YES, NBCS California
Moneyline: Yankees +120/A’s -130
Over/Under: 8.5

If the American League playoffs started today the Yankees and A’s would meet in the wild-card game in New York. But there’s still some work to do, as Oakland and New York open a three-game series Monday afternoon out by the Bay. How are we playing this contest with our daily free MLB picks?

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Oakland at around -120 over the Yanks, with an over/under of 9 runs. Early betting action then bumped the A’s about a dime, to around -130, and dipped the total to 8.5.

Oakland could also be found getting upwards of +170 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

New York just split four games at home with Detroit over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series finale 11-7. Those who bet the Yankees against the Tigers got clipped for a -$315 loss on the MLB betting odds Thursday and a -$260 defeat Sunday.

With Sunday’s loss New York is only 3-4 over its last seven games. At 86-51 overall the Yankees trail first-place Boston by 7.5 games in the AL East. But the Yanks also lead the American League wild-card race by 4.5 games over the second-place A’s and by 10 games over third-place Seattle.

Oakland, meanwhile, just split four games at home with those Mariners over the weekend, winning Sunday 8-2. But even with Sunday’s victory the A’s are also only 3-4 over their last seven contests. At 82-56 overall Oakland trails first-place Houston by just two games in the AL West but leads Seattle by 5.5 games in the battle for the second AL wild-card slot.

In the only previous meeting this season between these teams the Yanks took two of three games from the A’s in New York back in May.

Cahill (5-3, 3.60) by our strict standards, is 7/17 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last two. Last Wednesday he gave up three earned runs on five hits and six walks through just 3 1/3 innings against Houston, and just before that he gave up five runs in five innings against Minnesota. However, Cahill has been super at home this season, going 7/8 on quality starts, allowing just five earned runs through 52 2/3 innings. On the season Oakland is 10-7 with Cahill, 7-2 at home.

This will be Cahill’s first start against the Yankees since 2011, and that’s a long time ago.

Lefty Sabathia (7-5, 3.36) is 9/22 on quality starts this year, and one out away from being three for his last four. Last Wednesday he allowed three runs in six innings against the White Sox, and over his last four starts he’s allowed six runs through 23 2/3 innings. On the season New York is 14-10 with Sabathia, with unders going 15-7.

In his most recent start against the A’s, in May of last season, Sabathia gave up two runs through 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 Yankees win.

Sabathia has been the better pitcher as of late, but Cahill owns a great track record on his home field this year. For our handicapping purposes here we’re calling this pitching match-up a wash.

New York owns a .252/.329/.447 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season. However, this lineup is still without Didi Gregorius (22 HR, 74 RBI) and Aaron Judge (26 HR), who are both doing time on the DL.

The A’s own a .248/.323/.424 split against left-handed pitching this year.

We’ll call this battle of the sticks a push for Monday.

The New York bullpen owns a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP this season. But this unit is still operating without closer Aroldis Chapman, who’s also on the DL.

The Oakland pen owns a 3.29 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

So the bullpen match-up looks like a push, too.

Unders are 38-28 in games played at Oakland Coliseum this year, which are averaging just 7.9 total runs per, fewest among all ML ballparks.

Overs are 2-1 in Yanks-A’s games this season.

New York is a little short-handed at the moment, playing without a couple of big sticks and its closer. The Yankees might also be a little short on rest, flying cross-country for an afternoon game on the opposite coast. Meanwhile, Cahill has been great at the Coliseum this season. We’ll take Oakland for our free MLB pick for Monday.