Yankees vs. Mets
Where: Citi Field
When: June 9th, 2018 7:15PM ET
Moneyline: Yankees -151 / Mets +141
Over/Under: 8.5
By Prognosticator Darin Zank
The Yankees and Mets continue a Subway Series Saturday evening in Queens (7:15 ET). How are we betting this game with our free MLB picks?
The Line
Most MLB betting odds opened the Yankees at around -155, with an over/under of 8. The early action then pushed that line up about a nickel, to the -160 range. Also, the Yanks could be gotten at around -105 giving the run and a half on the run line.
Saturday Set Up
The Yankees took the opener of this series Friday night 4-1, winning as -110 favorites on the MLB betting lines and covering against the MLB betting run line. That game was tied at 1-1 into the top of the eighth inning before the Bombers bopped a couple of home runs (Gardner, Stanton) to pull away.
The Yanks have now won three games in a row and eight of their last nine, while the Mets have lost seven games in a row.
Also, both these teams have played four unders in a row; the Yanks because they’re getting some good pitching as of late, the Mets because they’re having a hell of a time scoring runs.
At 41-18 the Yankees now lead the AL East by a half-game over second-place Boston.
Meanwhile, at 27-33 the Mets have slipped 7.5 games back of division-leading Washington in the NL East.
Also, looking ahead to Saturday’s game, the Yanks are 14-4 this year against left-handed starters, while the Mets are 20-23 against right-handed starters.
This series is the first encounter between these teams this season. Last year the Yankees swept four games from the Mets.
Saturday’s Arms Match-Up
Mets lefty Steven Matz (2-4, 3.42), by our count, is 3/11 on quality starts this season, but two for his last three. Last Sunday he held the Cubs, the top-scoring offense in the National League, to two runs through seven innings, and over his previous three starts, he’s allowed just those two runs over 16 innings. The Mets are 6-5 with Matz this year, the unders 6-5.
In one start last year against the Yankees Matz got touched for seven runs – six earned – through 3 1/3 innings of a 7-5 Mets loss.
Yanks rookie Domingo German (0-4, 5.44) is 1/5 on quality starts and 0 for his last four. He posted a couple of rough outings earlier this month but has been a little better his last two times out. Monday he gave up four runs through 6 2/3 innings against Detroit, and just before that he gave up three ER through 5 2/3 against
Houston. The Yankees are 2-3 with German, with the overs going 3-2.
This will be German’s first career start against the Mets, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.
Matz and the Mets get the check-mark in this pitching match-up, but it’s not anything we wouldn’t bet against.
Batting Splits
The Yankees rank 10th in the Majors this year against left-handed pitching with a .255 team batting average, 5th with a .338 team OBP and No. 1 with a .454 team slugging percentage.
The Mets, who are still playing without OF Yoenis Cedpedes, rank 20th against right-handed pitching with a .242 BA, 13th with a .319 OBP and 18th with a .405 slugging percentage.
Yea, we’re giving the Yankees the advantage with the sticks here.
Bullpens
The Yankees bullpen ranks 6th in the ML with a 3.11 ERA and 4th in WHIP at 1.16, while going 17/25 on save opportunities.
The Mets pen, which just lost closer Jeurys Familia to the DL, ranks 26th in ERA at 4.55 and 21st in WHIP at 1.39 while going 17/29 on save opportunities.
We’re also giving the Yankees the check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens.
Free MLB Pick
One team is hot, and the other is not. Also, we think there’s value to be found betting road favorites against the run line. So we’re giving the run and a half here with the Yankees.