Astros vs. Rangers
Where: Globe Life Park
When: June 10th, 2018 3:05PM ET
Moneyline: Astros -200 / Rangers +185
Over/Under: 10.5
By Prognosticator Darin Zank
The Astros shoot for a sweep of the rival Rangers Sunday afternoon in Arlington (3:05 ET).
How are we playing this game with our free MLB picks for Sunday?
The Line
Most MLB betting odds opened Houston and Dallas Keuchel at around -190 over Texas and Matt Moore, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Sunday Set Up
The Astros have taken the first three games of this four-game series, following Saturday night’s 4-3 victory. That game was tied at 3-3 into the top of the seventh inning when Houston’s George Springer knocked in the go-ahead run. The Astros bullpen then closed things out from there for the win at -175 on the MLB betting odds.
The Rangers were the recipients of 10 walks and five hit batsmen Saturday night but left 17 runners on base.
So the Astros lead the season series nine games to four, with the unders going 9-4, as the games have averaged just over seven runs per. Houston’s outscored Texas 59-33.
At 41-25 the Astros are tied with Seattle for first place in the AL West, while at 27-40 the Rangers are now 14.5 games behind.
On the personnel front, Houston SS Carlos Correa (10 HR, 39 RBI) has missed recent action with an upper body injury and is questionable for Sunday.
Sunday’s Arms Battle
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on May 13, a 6-1 Astros victory.
Rangers lefty Matt Moore (1-5, 7.47), by our tough standards, is just 1/11 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last seven. Tuesday he allowed three runs and ten base-runners (hits + walks) through six innings against Oakland, and over his previous six starts, including that disaster against Cleveland a month ago, he’s been tagged for 29 earned runs through 27 2/3 innings. Texas is 5-6 with Moore this season, with the overs going 9-2.
In two starts this year against Houston Moore allowed seven runs and 16 base-runners through just seven innings. The Rangers lost both those games.
Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel (3-8, 4.13) is 6/13 on QS, and 0 for his last two. Tuesday he gave up seven runs and three homers in 6 2/3 innings against the Mariners, and just before that he gave up four runs in five innings against the Yankees. The Astros are only 5-8 with Keuchel this year, with the unders going 6-5.
In two starts this season against Texas Keuchel gave up three runs on 12 base-runners through 13 innings. Houston split those two games, and both games played under.
Despite his recent iffy form, we’re giving Keuchel the check-mark in this pitching match-up.
Sunday’s Batting Splits
The Astros rank third in the Majors this year against left-handed pitching with a .275 team batting average, fifth with a .338 team OBP and fourth with a .451 team slugging percentage.
The Rangers rank 20th against LHP with a .234 BA, 19th with a .318 OBP and 12th with a .416 slugging percentage.
Houston gets our check-mark in the batting splits for Sunday.
Bullpens
The Astros bullpen ranks fourth in the ML with a 2.99 ERA and second with a 1.12 WHIP while going 15/23 on save opportunities.
The Texas pen ranks 11th in ERA at 3.63 and 11th in WHIP at 1.29 while going 16/23 on save opportunities.
So Houston owns the edge in bullpen comparison, too.
Free MLB Pick
Houston owns all three of our baseball handicapping check-marks for this game. Also, the Astros are 15-10 this season against left-handed starters, while Texas is 8-13 against lefties. And finally, we like betting road favorites against the run line. So we’ll give the 1.5 runs with Houston here and lay our action at 5Dimes where we’ll put less of our bankroll on the line with their reduced juice betting.