Phillies vs. Mets Predictions: MLB Picks and Betting Preview

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Date: Sunday, September 22nd, 7:15 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Phillies -158/Mets +133
Total Line: 6.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the New York Mets and the Phillies on Sunday, September 22nd at Citi Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:15 PM ET, the Phillies and Mets square off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citi Field in New York, and the Phillies are the division leaders with a record of 92-63, while the Mets are 2nd at 86-69. Tylor Megill is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Zack Wheeler for the Phillies.

The money line odds have the Phillies at -158 compared to the Mets at +133, and the over/under line is currently 6.5 runs. This game will be televised on ESPN.

Phillies vs. Mets Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Philadelphia Phillies: 92-63 SU / OU 73-74 / Runline 75-80
New York Mets: 86-69 SU / OU 79-71 / Runline 79-76

New York picked up a 6-3 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a two-run lead after the 2nd inning and added three insurance runs in the 7th. As for the Phillies, they scored their final run in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -117 on the money line.

Sean Manaea started for the Mets and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. On the other side, Ranger Suarez got the start for the Phillies and took the loss, going five innings and giving up two earned runs.

New York’s offense was led by Francisco Alvarez and Luisangel Acuna, as they were the only two Mets hitters to have more than one hit. Alvarez and Jose Iglesias each drove in three runs for New York’s lineup.

Phillies Records & Recent Play

Philadelphia is on the road today vs. the Mets, and they are 92-63 overall, leading the NL East by six games over the Mets. The Phillies lead the division series 28-20 and have gone 52-26 at home. On the road, they are 40-37 this season.

So far, the Phillies have been favored in 124 of their games, and they are 79-45 in those games. As the underdog, Philadelphia is 13-18 this year. The Phillies have won two straight games as the favorite, and they are 25-17-7 in series this year.

When the Phillies have been favored on the run line this season, they have gone 59-65. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.9, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.8. On the run line, they are 40-37 on the road and 35-43 at home. Their overall run line record is 75-80, and they have covered in their last two games.

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road against the New York Mets today. The over/under line for the game is set at 6.5 runs, which is lower than their average combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. The Phillies have an over/under record of 73-74 on the season, and the over has hit in their last three games.

Mets Records & Recent Play

The Mets are 2nd in the NL East, six games behind the Phillies. Currently, they are 86-69 overall, and they have gone 28-20 against other teams in the NL East. New York has taken two of the first three games in this series vs. the Phillies, and they are 7-3 across their last ten games.

At home, the Mets are 45-35 this season compared to a 41-34 mark on the road. As the underdog, New York has dropped three straight, and they are 28-32 as the underdog overall. The Mets have been good as the favorite, going 58-37 this year.

When the Mets win, they win by an average of 3.8 runs per game, and their run line record is 79-76 overall. They are just 37-43 against the run line at home, where their average scoring margin is 0.6 runs per game. As the underdog, they are 35-25 against the run line.

When the Mets are at home, the over has hit in 79 of their 150 games, and their average combined run total is 9.1. Their over/under record is 79-71, and their over/under record when the line is set at 6.5 is 0-0. The over has hit in five straight games.

Pitching Matchup

Zack Wheeler has been dominant recently, as he has won his last four starts. In his most recent outing, he faced the Brewers and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Wheeler has made 30 starts, and his record for the season is 16-6. The right-hander’s ERA is 2.56, and he has a WHIP of .95. Opponents are batting .187 this season off Wheeler. Out of his 30 starts, Wheeler has turned in 24 quality starts and is averaging 9.88 strikeouts per nine innings.

New York starter Tylor Megill will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Nationals on September 17th, he went six innings, giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Megill has made 13 starts and three of them have been quality starts. His ERA for the season is 4.08, along with a record of 4-5. For the year, opponents are batting .217 off the right-hander. Megill’s ERA at home is 3.96 compared to 6.1 on the road.

Phillies vs. Mets Offense Outlook

Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are 4th in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging five runs per contest. Overall, they are 8th in home runs and have the 4th-best team batting average in the league. The Phillies have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, as Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos have two homers apiece in their last five and six games, respectively.

Kyle Schwarber has been a big power threat for the Phillies this season, as his 36 homers are 7th in the league, and he has driven in 99 runs, which is 11th best in the MLB. Bryce Harper is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he is 2nd on the team with 29 homers and is 3rd in RBIs. Harper comes into the game batting .285, while Schwarber is hitting .251.

Over the past six games, the Mets have had a few hitters swinging the bat well, including Jose Iglesias, who is hitting .462 with one home run during this stretch. Overall, Iglesias is on a 15-game hitting streak. Francisco Alvarez and Francisco Lindor have also gone deep in three of their last five games. Lindor comes into the game with a season-long batting average of .271, and Lindor’s 86 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team.

As a team, the Mets are 5th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 6th in the league in home runs and have the 9th best team batting average in the league.

Free Phillies vs. Mets MLB Pick

For this NL East matchup between the Phillies and Mets, the Phillies are favored with Zack Wheeler on the mound, and I see them running away with this one. Not only would I take them to win straight-up, but I’d take them to cover the run line in this matchup.