Phillies vs. Mets Predictions: MLB Divisional Series Game 2 Best Bets

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Sunday, October 6th, 4:08 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: FS1
Money Line: Mets +131/Phillies -154
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Mets on Sunday, October 6th at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

First pitch for Sunday’s Mets vs. Phillies matchup is set for 4:08 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Phillies are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -154, while the Mets are at +131 on the money line. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

This NL East matchup features Luis Severino for the Mets and Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies. New York is 89-73 overall, while the Phillies are 95-67 and in 1st place in the NL East. The Mets are 2nd in the division.

Mets vs. Phillies Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Mets: 89-73 SU / OU 84-77 / Runline 85-81
Philadelphia Phillies: 95-67 SU / OU 79-75 / Runline 78-85

New York picked up a 6-2 road win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets offense got off to a fast start, scoring five of their six runs in the 1st and 2nd innings. On the other side, the Phillies got on the board with one run in the 5th and added their final run in the 9th.

Kodai Senga only went two innings for the Mets but gave up just one run and one hit. Reed Garrett got the win out of the bullpen. Zack Wheeler had a good outing for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just one run on one hit.

Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos each had two hits and an RBI for the Mets. Kyle Schwarber did the same for the Phillies.

Mets Records & Recent Play

Heading into game two of their series against the Phillies, the Mets hold a 1-0 lead and are on the road. New York finished the regular season with an 89-73 record, going 46-35 at home and 43-38 on the road. As underdogs, they’ve won two straight games and have also won two consecutive road games.

New York’s run line record for the season is 85-81, and they’ve gone 47-38 against the run line on the road. As underdogs, they’ve posted a 40-28 run line record. The Mets’ games have averaged nine runs this season, while today’s over/under line sits at 7.5 runs. Their over/under record is 84-77 for the year.

Phillies Records & Recent Play

Facing a must-win situation in game two of their series against the Mets, the Phillies are looking to even things up at home, where they posted a strong 54-27 record during the regular season. Philadelphia went 41-40 on the road this year and finished the season 95-67 overall. As home favorites, they went 53-25.

Philadelphia’s run line record for the season is 78-85, with a 37-45 mark at home. Their games have averaged nine runs this year, while today’s over/under line sits at 7.5 runs. The Phillies’ over/under record is 79-75, and the over has hit in their last six games.

Pitching Matchup

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 11-7 and an ERA of 3.91. So far this season, he has made 31 starts, and 14 of them have been quality starts. Per nine innings, Severino is averaging 7.96 strikeouts and 2.97 walks. Overall, he has given up 23 homers. In his last outing, Severino gave up three earned runs in six innings of work. He did come out on top in that start, picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight outings. The right-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a 7-2 record and 3.64 ERA compared to 5-5 with a 5.14 ERA on the road.

Through 31 starts, Cristopher Sánchez has a record of 11-9 and an ERA of 3.32. He has pitched much better at home this season, coming in with a record of 7-3 and an ERA of 2.44. Sánchez has made 17 quality starts, and his most recent outing came on September 25th vs. the Cubs, where he finished with a no-decision. In that start, he went 4 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, four walks, and a homer. Before that outing, he had given up just one earned run in three straight starts. Sánchez has allowed at least one homer in three straight outings.

Mets vs. Phillies Offense Outlook

As a team, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. New York is also 6th in the league in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average in the MLB. Over his last seven games, Francisco Lindor is batting just .240, but he does have two homers in that stretch. For the season, he is hitting .273 with a team-high 91 RBIs.

Pete Alonso is also near the top of the league in homers, as his 34 long balls are the 10th most in the league. However, he is batting just .240 for the season. Alonso is also 3rd on the team with 88 RBIs. Currently, Brandon Nimmo is on a seven-game hitting streak for the Mets.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging five runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in the league in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the majors. Philadelphia also does a good job of getting on base, as they are 5th in OBP.

Kyle Schwarber is the Phillies’ top power threat, as his 38 home runs are 6th best in the league. However, he has just two homers in his last six games while batting just .217 in that span. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, going 7/17 in his last six games.

Free Mets vs. Phillies MLB Pick

The Mets built on their dramatic Wild Card series win over the Brewers by taking it to the Phillies in game one. Once again, their offense came through late in the game, putting up five runs in the 8th. Now, they have Luis Severino on the mound, who pitched well for the Mets in game one of the Wild Card round for them. However, in that outing, he struggled a bit with his command. I see him struggling vs the Phillies today. I would take Philadelphia on the money line to take game two.