Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Walker vs. Severino in Crucial NL East Clash

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Date: Thursday, September 19th, 7:15 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: FOX
Money Line: Phillies +120/Mets -141
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the New York Mets and the Phillies on Thursday, September 19th at Citi Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

The Phillies and Mets face off in an NL East matchup at 7:15 PM ET at Citi Field in New York, NY. The Phillies are 91-61 and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Mets are 84-68 and they have won three straight. Luis Severino will start for the Mets, while the Phillies are starting Taijuan Walker.

New York is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -141, while the Phillies are at +120. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and this game will be televised on FOX.

Phillies vs. Mets Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Philadelphia Phillies: 91-61 SU / OU 70-74 / Runline 74-78
New York Mets: 84-68 SU / OU 76-71 / Runline 77-75

Phillies Records & Recent Play

The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Brewers scored a run in the bottom of the 8th. Philadelphia was the -103 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Aaron Nola was excellent for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out nine. However, the Phillies couldnjson’t close things out, and Carlos Estévez took the loss out of the bullpen. The Phillies also wasted a big game from Alec Bohm, who homered in the 2nd inning, going 1/3.

With a record of 91-61, the Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Mets. The Phillies will be on the road for today’s game vs. the Mets, and they are 27-18 against other teams in the NL East. The Phillies lost two of three in their series vs. the Brewers.

At home, the Phillies have gone 52-26 this season, and they are just above .500 at 39-35 on the road. This season, the Phillies have been the favorite in 123 of their games, going 78-45 in those games. As the underdog, the Phillies are 13-16 this season. Their overall series record is 25-17-7, and they have yet to play the Mets in a series this year.

The Phillies have been a good bet on the run line this season, going 74-78. They are 39-35 on the run line on the road, and they have covered in two straight games. They have been a better bet at home, going 35-43 on the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.9, while it is -3.8 in losing games.

The Phillies are on the road against the Mets today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 70-74. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-18-2. Overall, 48.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher. They are currently on a two-game under streak.

Mets Records & Recent Play

Led by a big game by Luisangel Acuna at the plate, the Mets are coming off a 10-0 win over the Nationals to close out their series. Acuna went 2/4 with two RBIs and a homer. The Mets really broke things open with a nine-run 4th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Mets were at -173 at home.

Jose Quintana started for the Mets, going seven innings and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out four Nationals batters. New York’s offense was carried by Brandon Nimmo, who went 1/3 with a homer and three RBIs.

The Mets are seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East heading into today’s game vs. the Phillies. New York will be playing at home today, and they are 84-68 overall, which is good for 2nd place in the NL East. Overall, they have gone 26-19 against other teams in the NL East.

At home, the Mets have gone 43-34 this season compared to a 41-34 mark on the road. As the home favorite, the Mets are 36-23 this season and 56-37 as the favorite overall. New York has won three straight at home, and they have an overall series record of 27-15-8 this year.

The Mets have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 77-75 overall. They are 35-42 ATS at home and 42-33 ATS on the road. Their average run margin for the season is +0.6 runs per game, and they have covered the run line in their last two games. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 35-24 ATS in those games.

The Mets have been involved in high-scoring games this season, as their combined run average is 9.1. Their over/under record is 76-71, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8 runs is 14-9-1. The over has hit in their last two games, and they have played in 81 games with over/under lines set at more than 8 runs, which is 53.3% of their games.

Pitching Matchup

Taijuan Walker is looking to bounce back from a rough outing out of the bullpen, as he gets the start for the Phillies today vs. the Mets. In his most recent outing, he went three innings vs. the Mets, giving up three hits and two earned runs. Walker finished with a no-decision in that outing. Looking back over his last three outings, he has finished with a no-decision in each one. Walker’s ERA for the season is 6.29, along with a record of 3-6. Opponents are batting .300 off Walker this season, and he has made just two quality starts.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 10-6 and an ERA of 3.77. So far this year, he has made 29 starts and 13 of them have been quality starts. Severino’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.23. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone 7 innings in back-to-back outings and gave up a total of two earned runs in those starts. Opponents are batting .229 off Severino this year.

Phillies vs. Mets Offense Outlook

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .258. Philadelphia also has the 4th best on-base percentage in the league and have been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season.

Over his last 10 games, Bryce Harper has gone 13/38 with three homers and six RBIs. Harper is batting .288 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 84 RBIs. Kyle Schwarber has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 35 homers are the best mark on the team and 7th best in the MLB.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as they are 2nd and 1st on the team in home runs, respectively. Alonso’s 33 homers are 9th best in the league. Both players also have 86 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team. Lindor comes into the game with a team-best batting average of .271, and Alonso is hitting .246.

Jose Iglesias is currently on a 12-game hitting streak for the Mets and has gone 15/38 over his last 10 games. During this stretch, he has scored eight runs. Francisco Alvarez has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 3/9 with three homers over his last nine games.

Free Phillies vs. Mets MLB Pick

Taijuan Walker hasn’t gone past three innings since August, and Luis Severino has been pitching really well in his three starts this month. This one has playoff implications for both sides, as Philadelphia is looking to hold on to the top seed in the NL, while the Mets want to hold off the Braves for the final Wild Card spot. For today’s game, there is no need to overthink it. Roll with the hot pitcher, I like the Mets to pick up the win.