Phillies vs. Cubs Moneyline Pick | 7/4/24

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Date: Thursday, July 4th, 2:20 ET
Location: Wrigley Field
TV: MLBN
Money Line: Phillies -134/Cubs +114
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Chicago Cubs and the Phillies on Thursday, July 4th at Wrigley Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 2:20 PM ET, the Phillies and Cubs will face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line (-134). The money line odds for the Cubs are sitting at +114, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.

Philadelphia will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak, as they are 57-29 and in 1st place in the NL East. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 5th in the NL Central with a record of 39-48. MLBN will be televising Thursday’s game.

Phillies vs. Cubs Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Philadelphia Phillies: 57-29 SU / OU 38-43 / Runline 46-40
Chicago Cubs: 39-48 SU / OU 38-45 / Runline 40-47

Philadelphia picked up a 5-3 road win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a two-run lead going into the 8th inning and Jose Alvarado closed things out. Zack Wheeler pitched well for the Phillies, going six innings and giving up just two earned runs.

Alec Bohm and Rafael Marchan each homered for the Phillies, while Trea Turner scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/4. Pete Crow-Armstrong had a two-hit game for the Cubs.

Chicago wasted a good outing from Shota Imanaga, who gave up just three earned runs in six innings of work. Tyson Miller took the loss for the Cubs out of the bullpen.

Phillies Records & Recent Play

Philadelphia has been playing well this season, putting together a record of 57-29, which has them leading the NL East by nine games over the Braves. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Cubs and have an overall series record of 17-7-5 this year.

At home, the Phillies have gone 33-14 this year, and they are 24-15 on the road. Heading into today’s game, the Phillies have won three straight games, and they are 36-15 in night games this year. As the favorite, the Phillies are 50-23 and 7-6 as the underdog. Looking at their overall record, the Phillies have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games.

Philadelphia has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 22-17. The Phillies have covered the run line in three straight road games and have an average run margin of +1.1 runs per game on the road. They’ve been a better run line bet at home, going 24-23, but their average run margin is slightly higher on the road than at home.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been on the road in their last three games, and the over has hit in each of those contests. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 38-43. The average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 6-10. The over has hit in 68.6% of their games this season when the line has been set at 7.5 runs.

Cubs Records & Recent Play

Chicago is 39-48 overall, putting them 5th in the NL Central, and they trail the Brewers by 13 games for the division lead. The Cubs have dropped three straight games, and they are 2-8 across their last 10. So far, they are just 10-19 against their NL Central counterparts.

At home, the Cubs are 22-20 this year compared to 17-28 on the road. As the home underdog, the Cubs have gone 8-5 this year, while they are 20-21 as the favorite. The Cubs have dropped three straight games as the underdog, and their overall series record is 9-16-2 this year.

When betting the run line, the Cubs have been a much better bet as the underdog. They are 29-17 against the run line when getting the runs, but just 11-30 when laying them. The Cubs have been outscored by an average of 0.4 runs per game this season, and their run line record is 40-47. They have been outscored by an average of 1.0 runs per game on the road, but have a winning run line record away from Wrigley Field at 25-20. Their run line record at home is just 15-27.

The Chicago Cubs are playing at home today against the Philadelphia Phillies. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is slightly lower than the Cubs’ average over/under line of 8 runs. The Cubs have a 38-45 over/under record on the season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.5 runs per game. Their games have gone over the 7.5-run line in 11 of the 21 games where the line was set at that number. The over has also hit in each of their last three games.

Pitching Matchup

Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA. Sánchez has been pitching well as of late, as he has picked up the win in each of his last three outings. In his most recent start, he went the distance, pitching a shutout and giving up just three hits to the Marlins. Sánchez has one complete game and shutout this year, along with nine quality starts. His ERA at home is 1.47, compared to 4.55 on the road.

Jameson Taillon will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing against the Brewers, as he gets the start for the Cubs today. In that June 28th start, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Looking back further, Taillon has finished with a no-decision in two of his last four outings. He has a record of 4-4 this season and an ERA of 3.03. So far, Taillon has made seven quality starts and is averaging 7.02 strikeouts per nine innings. At home, his ERA is 3.21 compared to 3.25 on the road.

Phillies vs. Cubs Offense Outlook

Philadelphia has been one of the league’s top offenses this season, as they are 4th in runs per game and are the league’s top home run hitting team. Not only are they near the top of the league in home runs, but the Phillies also have a team batting average of .259, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper have been two of the team’s top power threats, as Bohm has 11 homers and Harper has gone deep 20 times this season.

Bohm has been swinging the bat well of late, as he is batting .257 over his last nine games with three home runs. Trea Turner has also been swinging a hot bat, going 14/39 in his last nine games. Harper is currently on a 12-game hitting streak, and Nick Castellanos has also been swinging the bat well, with a five-game hitting streak.

Chicago’s offense has been below average this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game (22nd in the league). They are also near the bottom of the league in terms of batting average and slugging percentage. The Cubs do have a good team walk rate and have been solid at avoiding strikeouts. The team’s home run leader is Christopher Morel, but he is batting just .197 for the season.

Over his last five games, Cody Bellinger has gone 6/19, and he is also the team’s 2nd leading hitter for the season at .274. He also comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are tied for 2nd on the team in homers, but both are batting under .230 for the season.

Free Phillies vs. Cubs MLB Pick

With the line for the Phillies on the money line sitting at just -134, this is an excellent chance to take them to win. Look for the Cub’s offense to struggle today, and I like the Phillies to come out on top in this National League 4th of July showdown.