Phillies at Brewers: Expert MLB Pick & Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Monday, September 16th, 7:40 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: BSWI
Money Line: Phillies -119/Brewers +101
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Phillies on Monday, September 16th at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

	ML	RL	Total
PHI	-119	-1.5	O 8 (-114)
MIL	+101	+1.5	U 8 (-106)

The Phillies head into Monday’s matchup vs. the Brewers looking to extend their two-game winning streak. They are currently 90-59 and they are 1st in the NL East. The Brewers, meanwhile, are 1st in the NL Central with a record of 86-63.

Monday’s money line odds have the Phillies at -119, while the Brewers are the slight home underdog at +101. The over/under line is sitting at 8 runs, and this NL matchup can be seen on BSWI.

Phillies vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Player	Batting Order	Position
Kyle Schwarber	1	DH
Trea Turner	2	SS
Bryce Harper	3	1B
Nick Castellanos	4	RF
Bryson Stott	5	2B
J.T. Realmuto	6	C
Brandon Marsh	7	LF
Alec Bohm	8	3B
Johan Rojas	9	CF
Ranger Suárez	–	SP

Player	Batting Order	Position
Jackson Chourio	1	LF
Blake Perkins	2	CF
William Contreras	3	C
Gary Sánchez	4	DH
Willy Adames	5	SS
Joey Ortiz	6	3B
Rhys Hoskins	7	1B
Sal Frelick	8	RF
Brice Turang	9	2B
Aaron Civale	–	SP

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Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Philadelphia Phillies: 90-59 SU / OU 70-72 / Runline 72-77
Milwaukee Brewers: 86-63 SU / OU 77-63 / Runline 77-72

Phillies Records & Recent Play

The Phillies’s offense was carried by Cristopher Sánchez in their most recent game vs. the Mets. He went seven innings, giving up just one run on six hits and issued only one walk. Sánchez also struck out seven Mets batters. However, the Phillies needed a run from José Ruiz in the bottom of the 9th to pick up the 2-1 win. Ruiz also closed things out, picking up the save.

Philadelphia’s other run came in the 4th inning. They loaded the bases with no outs but could only score one run. The Phillies were the -134 favorite at home going into the game.

With an overall record of 90-59, the Phillies lead the NL East by nine games over the Mets. The Phillies are on a two-game winning streak, and they took two of three in their most recent series vs. the Mets. So far, they have gone 27-18 in divisional matchups.

At home, the Phillies have been excellent this season, going 52-26. They have also been good on the road, putting together a record of 38-33. As the favorite, the Phillies are 77-44 this year, and they are 13-15 as the underdog. The team’s overall series record is 27-16-7 and they have won two straight series.

When the Phillies are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 37-34 for the season. They have been even better as the underdog, going 15-13, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.9.

The Phillies have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. Their over/under record is 70-72, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they are 17-18-1. Overall, 49.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 or higher, with the average line being set at 8 runs per game.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

The Brewers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Diamondbacks with an 11-10 loss. Milwaukee was the +139 underdog on the road going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Brewers, as they got on the board with three runs in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Diamondbacks scored two runs in the bottom of the first.

Milwaukee started DL Hall, and he took the loss, going only three innings and giving up five earned runs on five hits. The Brewers also used Jared Koenig out of the bullpen, and he took the loss, as well. Koenig only lasted 1/3 of an inning, giving up three earned runs.

Milwaukee is hosting the Phillies with an overall record of 86-63, which has them leading the NL Central by 10 games over the Cubs. The Brewers have gone 30-19 against their division this year and won their series vs. the Diamondbacks 2-1. So far, they are 42-29 at home and 44-34 on the road.

As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 50-36 and 36-27 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 27-17-4, and they have won two straight series. Currently, they are 9-9 as the home underdog this year.

The Brewers have been a solid run line bet this season, going 77-72 overall. They have been particularly profitable as the underdog, going 43-20 against the run line in those games. Their average run differential is +0.9 runs per game, and they have a run line win streak of three games as the underdog.

Today’s over/under line is set at 8 runs for the Milwaukee Brewers’ home game against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 77-63. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have a record of 11-11-4. Overall, 55.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs, and their current over streak is at 2 games.

Pitching Matchup

Left-hander Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with a 3.05 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.13. In his 24 starts, he has one complete game shutout and 11 quality starts. Suárez is coming off a start in which he finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, going 7-4 with a 2.79 ERA compared to 5-2 with a 3.83 ERA at home.

Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Phillies at home. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 6-8 with a 4.57 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .252 this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.32. In his 28 starts, Civale has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and picked up the win. Before that, he had gone two straight outings without giving up a homer.

Phillies vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies offense is 5th in the league at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. Overall, the Phillies are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams, and they are also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Bryce Harper has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/22 in his last six games with two homers. For the season, Harper is batting .289 with 28 homers, which is 12th best in the league. Kyle Schwarber has been the Phillies’ top power threat this season, as his 35 homers are 6th best in the league. However, he is batting just .248 and has gone just 3/15 in his last five games.

Over the past seven games, Jackson Chourio has gone 8/29 (.276) with two homers and eight RBIs. Willy Adames has also gone deep twice in this stretch, but he is just 6/26 in his last seven games. For the season, Adames is 2nd in the MLB with 109 RBIs and is batting .252. William Contreras comes into the game with a batting average of .280 and has gone deep 22 times.

As a team, the Brewers are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .250 and have the 8th-best on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts and is also 2nd in the league in walks.

Free Phillies vs. Brewers MLB Pick

Taking the Phillies on the money line is the best play of the day across the league. Even though the Brewers lead their division, the Phillies are a class above Milwaukee. And with Ranger Suarez on the mound, this one is a no-brainer. Go ahead and take Philly to win this one straight-up.