Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

Philadelphia Phillies (19-14) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (20-14), 5/6/19
Time: 8:05 pm ET
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Listed Pitchers: Vince Velasquez (1-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs. Miles Mikolas (3-2, 4.73, 1.25)
TV: ESPN, NBCS Philadelphia, FS Midwest

Moneyline: Cardinals -125/Phillies +115 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 9

The Phillies are warming up, coming off a series win over Washington, while the Cardinals just got cooled by the Cubs, losing three straight games at Wrigley. Now Philly and St. Louis open a three-game series at Busch Stadium Monday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened St. Louis and Mikolas at around -135 over Philly and Velasquez, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to -125 and bumped that total to 9.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Set-Up

Philadelphia just took two of three games at home from Washington over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 7-1. Philly led 2-1 into the bottom of the sixth inning Sunday then pulled away with a five spot.

Just before that the Phillies split two games with Detroit, and just before that they took three of four from Miami. So the Phillies are 6-2 over their last eight games.

At 19-14 overall Philadelphia leads the NL East by a game and a half over second-place Atlanta.

St. Louis, meanwhile, just got swept three games by the Cubs in Chicago, losing Sunday’s series finale 13-5. But just before that the Cardinals took three of four from the Nationals in Washington. In fact, St. Louis had won four series in a row, which included a 10-1 run. Now, the Cardinals own a four-game losing streak.

At 20-14 overall St. Louis now trails the division-leading Cubs by a half-game in the NL Central.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Philadelphia took the season series from St. Louis four games to three.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Mikolas is 3/7 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Last Wednesday he held Washington to one run and seven hits through six innings of a 5-1 Cardinals victory, and over his last three starts he’s allowed seven runs and 17 hits through 19 innings.

St. Louis is 5-2 with Mikolas this season.

In his only career start against Philadelphia, last June, Mikolas gave up four runs and six hits through five innings of a 6-5 Cardinals loss.

Velasquez is just 1/5 on quality starts this season but some of that is due to a short leash. Three times he’s gotten within three outs of a QS, only to get pulled. Last Tuesday he gave up three runs on six hits through just 3 2/3 innings of a 3-1 Philly loss to the Tigers, but over his first four starts he allowed only five runs and 16 hits through 21 2/3 innings.

The Phillies are 3-2 with Velasquez this season.

In two starts against St. Louis last season Velasquez gave up four runs and nine hits through 12 2/3 innings. Philadelphia split those two games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

• Philadelphia is batting .249/.340/.428 against right-handed pitching this season.

• St. Louis is batting .276/.349/.452 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

• The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.24 ERA this season, along with a 1.38 WHIP and a 122/38 strikeouts/walks ratio.

• The St. Louis bullpen owns a 3.96 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP and a 142/57 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

• Unders are 16-15 in Phillies games this season.

• Overs are 17-13 in Cardinals games this season.

• Overs are 8-6 in games played at Busch Stadium this season.

• Unders are 5-0 with Velasquez this season, and much of that is thanks to him.

• Overs are 5-2 with Mikolas this season, thanks to some spotty efforts on his part and some good run support.

• Overs finished 4-3 in Phillies-Cardinals games last season.

Free MLB Pick

Philadelphia is the hotter team here, and that means a lot. Also, while St. Louis might own slight edges with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison Velasquez gives Philly the edge in the pitching match-up. We’re taking the Phillies and the underdog price for our free MLB pick for Monday.