Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Pick

Philadelphia Phillies (12-11 SU, 10-13 RL) at New York Mets (13-10 SU, 14-9 RL)
Date: Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field, New York
Listed Pitchers: Philadelphia: Vince Velasquez (0-0, 2.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) vs. New York: Jason Vargas (1-0, 9.58 ERA, 2.32 WHIP)
TV: ESPN
Moneyline: Phillies -112/Mets +102
Over/Under: 9

The Mets cruised to an easy win on Tuesday, and we took our W as well, blitzing the Phillies for a 9-0 victory. New York has now won two straight and has a shot to sweep its rival, which would mark the second time this season that they’ve swept a divisional rival. The Phillies haven’t yet been swept this season, but they’ve been struggling for the past two weeks. Can they avoid falling further behind the Mets, or can New York get some distance here?

MLB Betting Odds

The Mets started as a small favorite, but given the pitching matchup, the line has shifted toward the Phillies, as Velasquez boasts the much better stat line and the Phillies have not yet been swept this season.

Phillies vs. Mets Set-Up

Tuesday night certainly didn’t look like the Phillies are in the same class as the Mets in terms of competing for the division. Philadelphia was a mess on Tuesday, giving up a two-run double and a solo home run to pitcher Zack Wheeler, which proved a sign of things to come when Todd Frazier finished off the Phillies with a grand slam. Both teams will be at home after this contest, as the Phillies will host the Marlins while the Mets get a real measuring stick in the Brewers.

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Wednesday’s Starting Arms

When you have people writing about you losing your spot in the starting rotation, that’s a pretty bad sign. That’s been Vargas’ reality after two of his past three starts resulted in him not making it to the second inning. Against Atlanta, he got just one out before getting pulled after giving up four runs in an 11-7 loss. In four starts, he’s only made it five innings once, and it comes with the asterisk that it was against the Marlins. Velasquez started the year out of the bullpen, but has since returned to the rotation and has looked sharp as a starter. In three starts, he’s surrendered just four walks and 13 hits, along with five earned runs. Even his most recent start, the only one where he couldn’t finish his inning, he pitched fairly well, striking out eight in a 4-3 loss to Colorado.

Wednesday’s Batting Splits

 The Phillies aren’t hitting well against the Mets. They’ve managed just eight hits in two games against New York, and going back to their pratfall against Colorado, they’ve managed just two runs in their past 27 innings. Other than a Rhys Hoskins home run, the Phillies have done absolutely nothing against New York pitching. Speaking of New York pitching, after Wheeler’s performance, the Mets’ pitchers have actually produced more runs than the Phillies’ hitters in this series.

The Bullpens

Big leads have meant that the Mets haven’t had to worry much about their bullpen situation when facing the Phillies. However, it remains to be seen what will happen if these teams play a tight game, as both of them have struggled with getting the job done when they’ve needed to protect a lead in a tight spot. The longer the starter can go, the better their respective team is.

Totals Report

•  The over is 3-0-1 in the Mets’ past four games against a starter with a WHIP under 1.15.

• The over is 5-1 in the Mets’ past six Game 3’s of a series.

• The over is 12-3-2 in the Mets’ past 17 games after scoring 5 runs or more.

• The under is 5-1-1 in the Phillies’ past seven games

Free MLB Pick

There’s not a lot to like about the Phillies at the moment. They’re not hitting the ball well, and their pitchers aren’t getting the job done at stopping the Mets from scoring. However, the pitching matchup is not a favorable one for the Mets in this contest. Vargas isn’t only struggling this season, he’s struggled for his entire career against the Phillies. He’s just 2-7 against them in his MLB career, and even though he won his one start against Philadelphia a year ago, little suggests that he’s going to be able to do that again. By contrast, Velasquez looks like a solid starter and someone the Phillies can count on to stop a losing streak. That’s what I think he’s going to do here, and I’ll gamble on the Phillies to stop the bleeding in this game.