Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Pick 9/17/21

Philadelphia Phillies (74-72) vs. New York Mets (72-75)
When: 7:10 p.m., Friday, September 17
Where: Citi Field, New York
Moneyline: PHI -140/NYM +130 (Find the best bonus >>>)
Runline: Phillies -1.5/Mets +1.5
Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler (13-9, 2.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) vs. Tajuan Walker (7-9, 4.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)

Pressure Situation

This is the opening these teams have waited for, for multiple reasons. First, there’s the obvious one that both teams need wins if they’re going to stay in this race for the NL East title. But second, there’s the fact that the Braves are off facing the Giants, which means that there are likely to be at least two and possibly three chances to gain games on Atlanta.

Both teams will get a shot at the Braves before the season is over, but that only matters if they’re close enough to catch up to Atlanta in the final week, so this is probably the most critical weekend of the season for both teams. That’s especially true for the Phillies, who still have a reasonable 21 percent chance to make the playoffs and could tie Atlanta if they can sweep the Mets and get some help from the Giants. New York, on the other hand, basically has to have a sweep and help even to have a hope, as they still face a demanding schedule down the stretch and come in just 3-7 in their past ten contests.

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You Can Go Home Again

Or at least you can go to the place you started your career, as Zack Wheeler returns to Queens to face the team he was a member of until 2020. After a bit of a rough start to facing his ex-teammates, Wheeler seems to have figured out how to pitch against the Mets (either that or the Mets’ hitting problems have presented themselves yet again), as he’s won his past two starts against the Mets and went the distance in a two-hit shutout the last time he faced New York. As a whole, the Phillies seem to have figured out the Mets as of late, having won four in a row against New York. All that’s done is even the season series at eight apiece, but with the end of the year nigh, the Phillies are the team with the momentum and have their sights set on getting into a final showdown with Atlanta for the division.

Launching Pad

The Mets aren’t acting like a team that’s having trouble at the plate as of late, scoring six runs or more in four of their past six games. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Mets’ pitching has also gone south at precisely the wrong moment, as New York has allowed six runs or more in five consecutive games. That’s made the Mets a great over bet, as the only one of their past six to hit the under only failed to cash because the Mets didn’t get anything off Adam Wainwright in a 7-0 loss to St. Louis. Walker shouldn’t be expected to be any better: the Mets have lost eight of his past nine starts, and opponents have scored 11 runs in his past two trips to the hill. The only reason he avoided another defeat against Washington two weeks ago was because the Mets scored 13 runs, giving him the cushion to survive the Nationals’ outburst.

Betting Trends

• The Phillies are 5-1 in their past six road games against a right-handed starter.
• The Phillies are 20-8 in their past 28 against the NL East.
• The Mets are 14-3 in their past 17 after an off day.
• The Mets are 31-65 in their past 96 games as a home underdog.
• The over is 8-0-1 following a Phillies win.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Phillies’ past five as a road favorite.
• The over is 6-1 in the Mets’ past seven home games.
• The over is 5-1 in the Mets’ past six games overall.
• The Mets have won five of seven against the Phillies in New York.
• The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings.

Weather Report

It’ll be a comfortable day for baseball in New York, with the wind blowing in from center field and 75-degree temperatures.

Dan’s Pick

The Phillies are playing better than the Mets and coming off the high of overcoming a 7-0 deficit on Thursday against the Cubs. The Mets have really been struggling lately, and their pitching isn’t getting the job done. Against this Phillies lineup, that’s not where you want to be. Give me the Phils here.