Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 9/8/21

Philadelphia Phillies (71-67) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (85-55)

When: 7:40 p.m., Wednesday, September 8

Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee

Moneyline: PHI +140/MIL -170 (Get dimeline betting >>> Why? Because the favorites cost less and the underdogs pay more!)

Runline: Phillies +1.5/Brewers -1.5

Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (10-6, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (9-4, 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP)

Back in the Mix

The Phillies have stepped up their play in recent weeks and are now right back in the battle for the NL East crown along with Atlanta and the Mets. The three Eastern teams have mostly stumbled through this season and have flirted with the .500 mark from start to finish in 2021, and with 24 games to go, it’s becoming clear that mediocrity will be good enough to claim the prize of a playoff spot.

As such, this could be a potential playoff preview if Milwaukee decides that it’s fine where it is. The Brewers are in the odd position of knowing they’re safely in the postseason but not knowing what the best course of action for them is. On the one hand, having the No. 1 seed would mean home-field advantage against the Dodgers or Giants in the NLCS, should that be the opponent. On the other, the No. 1 seed will likely have to play either the Dodgers or Giants in the NLDS, and the only thing worse than facing the Dodgers in the playoffs is facing the Dodgers in a short series. Staying in second (the Brewers trail San Francisco by 4.5 games for the No. 1 seed) would yield a potentially easier matchup with the NL East champion at the cost of having to travel in a seventh game in the NLCS. Whichever one the Brewers value more will determine their approach over the final 3.5 weeks.

Eating Innings

Say this much for Kyle Gibson: even when he doesn’t have his good stuff, he’s going to give it everything he’s got. Over his past ten starts, he’s made it into the sixth inning in all but one of them, and that was because the Dodgers tagged him for six runs and the Phillies decided they had to try the bullpen.

For the most part, Gibson has had his good stuff since getting traded from the Rangers, as he has earned a quality start in five of his seven starts since joining Philadelphia. The Phillies usually give Gibson a fair amount of run support, as he’s only seen his team held to two runs or less twice during his starts. Not coincidentally, both of those ended up losses. While in Philadelphia, four has been the magic number for Gibson: the Phillies are 4-0 when they give him at least four runs of support and 0-3 when they do not.

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Shake It Off

Freddy Peralta has typically been a reliable starter for the Brewers this season, but things have really gone off the rails in his most recent starts. Peralta hasn’t made it to the third inning in either of his past two starts, giving up a combined seven runs over a four-inning span to the Cardinals. Milwaukee was able to overcome his struggles the first time, but not the second, as St. Louis blitzed the Brewers for a 15-4 loss in Peralta’s second rough outing.

When he has his good stuff, Peralta has been a good option for Milwaukee and a consistent performer over the first six innings. But with two straight poor starts, it’s fair to wonder whether Peralta has simply seen too much of the Cardinals lately or whether he’s running out of bullets for this season. If it’s the latter, the Phillies have a significant edge.

Betting Trends

• The Phillies are 6-0 in their past six games against a right-handed starter.
• The Phillies are 7-2 in their past nine games as a road underdog.
• The Brewers are 7-3 in their past ten home games.
• The Brewers are 7-2 in their past nine as a home favorite.
• The over is 4-0 in the Phillies’ past four as a road underdog.
• The over is 7-2 in the Phillies’ past nine games overall.
• The over is 4-1 in the Brewers’ past five home games.
• The under is 10-4-1 in the Brewers’ past 15 Game 3’s of a series.
• The Phillies are 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Milwaukee.
• The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Milwaukee.

Weather Report

With 71 degree temperatures, clear skies, and a wind blowing at 11 miles per hour toward right-center, this is likely to be ideal baseball weather, and the roof should stay open.

Dan’s Pick

Peralta just hasn’t had it lately, and I’m certainly not in the mood to pay the juice on a cold pitcher against a team that badly needs the win and has had some success as of late. The Phillies seem to sense opportunity, and I think they can take advantage of their chances here.

I’ll take Philadelphia as a live dog here. With the baseball season winding down, I hope you’ll consider following my college football picks! I’m good!