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Philadelphia Phillies vs. LA Dodgers Pick

by Darin Zank | Last updated May 31, 2019 | mlb

Kenta Maeda gets the call tonight against the Padres

Philadelphia Phillies (33-23) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (38-19), 5/31/19
Time: 10:10 pm ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Jake Arrieta (5-4, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. Kenta Maeda (6-2, 3.67, 1.17)
TV: NBCS Philadelphia, SportsNet LA

Moneyline: Dodgers -160/Phillies +150
Over/Under: 8.5

First place in the East meets first place in the West when the Phillies and Dodgers kick off an interesting three-game series at Chavez Ravine Friday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened LA and Maeda at around -160 over Philly and Arrieta, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.

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Phillies vs. Dodgers Set-Up

Philadelphia just took two of three games at home from St. Louis earlier this week, missing out on the sweep by losing Thursday’s series finale 5-3. Just before that the Phillies took two of three games from the Brewers in Milwaukee; just before that they split four games with the Cubs at Wrigley; and just before that they swept three games at home from Colorado.

So Philly is 3-0-1 over its last four series and 9-4 over its last 13 games.

At 33-23 overall the Phillies lead the NL East by three games over second-place Atlanta.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, just took three of four games at home from the Mets, winning Thursday’s series finale 2-0. Just before that the Dodgers swept three games from the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Going back a bit further LA is 6-0-2 over its last eight series and 12-3 over its last 15 games.

At 38-19 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by 8.5 games over second-place San Diego.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Philly took the season series from LA four games to three.

Friday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last May, a 6-1 Phillies victory also at Dodger Stadium. Arrieta got the win that day, while Maeda left the game with an injury in the second inning.

Maeda is 4/10 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Last Sunday he allowed three runs and five hits, including a couple of home runs, through five innings against the Pirates, although the Dodgers won that game 11-7. And over his last three starts he’s allowed just those three runs and nine hits through 17 2/3 innings, with 22 strikeouts against just two walks.

Los Angeles is 6-4 with Maeda this season, 3-0 over his last three starts.

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In two starts last year against Philadelphia Maeda gave up six runs and nine hits, including three dingers, through 8 2/3 innings. The Dodgers lost both those games.

Arrieta is 7/11 on quality starts this season and two for his last two. Last Saturday he held Milwaukee to two runs and five hits through eight innings, with eight strikeouts, in a 7-2 Phillies victory. And just before that he held the Cubs to one run and eight hits through six frames of a 5-4 Philly win.

Philadelphia is 6-5 with Arrieta this season, 2-0 over his last two starts.

In two starts last year against Los Angeles Arrieta allowed just three runs – two earned – and 11 hits through 13 innings. The Phillies won both those games.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Philly is batting .241/.327/.408 against right-handed pitching this season.

Los Angeles is batting .268/.352/.481 against RH pitching this season. But this lineup could be without a key stick if Justin Turner (.306), who missed Thursday’s game with a sore hamstring, can’t go.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.01 ERA this season, along with a 1.36 WHIP.

The Dodgers pen owns a 4.62 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Totals Report

Unders are 30-25 in Phillies games this season.

Overs are 31-24 in Dodgers games this season.

Overs are 15-12 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.

Unders are 7-4 with Arrieta this season.

Overs are 6-4 with Maeda this season.

Overs finished 5-1-1 in Phillies-Dodgers games this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’ll give Arrieta the edge in the pitching match-up here; Los Angeles owns an edge with the sticks; and the bullpens seem about even. So we see betting value here with Philadelphia at the underdog price.