Phillies vs. Brewers 6/15/18
Where: Miller Park
When: June 15th, 2018 8:10PM ET
Moneyline: PHI +124 / MIL -134
Over/Under: 8.5
By Prognosticator Darin Zank
Milwaukee took two of three games in Philly last weekend; can the Phillies return the favor this weekend at Miller Park? And how are we leaning with our free MLB picks on Friday night’s series opener (8:10 ET)?
The Line
Most MLB betting odds opened Milwaukee with Brent Suter at around -135 over Philadelphia and Jake Arrieta, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line about a nickel, to the -140 range.
Friday’s Set-Up
The Brewers just took two of out three games from the Cubs this week, winning a series rubber match Wednesday 1-0. In fact, Milwaukee pitching shut out Chicago on Tuesday, too. So the Brewers have won two series in a row and four of their last six games.
Milwaukee’s also 9-4 on the unders over its last 13 games, playing a bunch of low-scoring games lately.
At 41-27 the Brewers lead the NL Central by a game and a half over the Cubbies.
The Phillies, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from Colorado, winning Thursday’s rubber match 9-3. However, Philly is now just 1-4-1 over its last six series and 6-11 over its last 17 games.
The Phillies are also 5-1 on the overs their last six times out.
At 35-31 Philadelphia sits four games behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East and 2.5 games behind Washington in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
The Brewers lead this season series two games to one, with the overs going 2-1, as the Brew Crew twice popped off for 12 runs in taking that series in Philly last weekend.
Friday’s Arms Match-Up
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last Saturday, a 12-3 Brewers victory.
Lefty Suter (6-4, 4.61), almost amazingly, is 0/12 on quality starts this season because he’s yet to finish six innings. Last Saturday against these Phillies Suter allowed three runs through five innings, and over his last three starts he’s allowed eight runs through 15 innings. Milwaukee is 6-6 with Suter this year, with overs going 8-4.
In two career starts against Philadelphia Suter allowed four runs and nine hits through 11 innings. The Brewers won both those games, and both games played over the totals.
Arrieta (5-4, 2.97), by our strict standards is 7/12 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two. Last Saturday against this Milwaukee outfit Arrieta got nicked for five runs – four earned – through 5 1/3 innings, and just before that he gave up five runs in six innings against San Francisco. The Phillies are 5-7 with Arrieta this year, the overs 7-3.
In three starts last year for the Cubs against the Brewers Arrieta gave up four ER over 18 innings, and Chicago won all three of those games. But this Milwaukee lineup is a little different and better than the one he faced last season.
Despite his recent struggles we’re giving Arrieta the handicapping check-mark on Friday’s pitching match-up.
Friday’s Batting Splits
Philly ranks 25th in the Majors this year against left-handed pitching with a .229 team batting average, 15th with a .319 team OBP and 28th with a .354 team slugging percentage.
The Brewers rank 7th against right-handed pitching with a .255 BA, 11th with a .321 OBP and 9th with a .418 slugging percentage.
So Milwaukee owns an edge with the sticks here.
Bullpens
The Phillies bullpen ranks 16th with a 3.88 ERA and 12th with a 1.31 WHIP.
The Brewers pen ranks 2nd in ERA at 2.65 and 4th in WHIP at 1.14.
So the Brew Crew owns the edge in the bullpen comparison, too.
Free MLB Pick
Arrieta is coming off a couple of iffy outings, but right now might be a good time to bet him. Prior to his last two starts his ERA was 2.16. Milwaukee might own a couple of our handicapping check-marks here, but we’re betting the value with Arrieta as an underdog. Get this game and most North American sports and reduced odds at 5Dimes and improve your bottom line!
