Padres vs. Dodgers Predictions: MLB Divisional Series Game 1 Best Bets

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Saturday, October 5th, 8:38 ET
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: FS1
Money Line: Padres +118/Dodgers -137
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Padres on Saturday, October 5th at Dodger Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

There is an NL West matchup on Saturday between the Padres and Dodgers, with the game getting started at 8:38 PM ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. The Dodgers are on a five-game winning streak and are 1st in the NL West with a record of 98-64, while the Padres are 2nd in the division at 93-69.

FS1 will be televising Saturday’s game, and the Dodgers are the betting favorite, with their moneyline odds sitting at -137 compared to the Padres at +118. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup features Dylan Cease for the Padres and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers.

Padres vs. Dodgers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Diego Padres: 93-69 SU / OU 83-77 / Runline 85-79
Los Angeles Dodgers: 98-64 SU / OU 90-68 / Runline 81-81

Padres Records & Recent Play

The Padres’ offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Braves, closing out their series with a 5-4 win. After allowing one run to the Braves in the top of the first, the Padres responded with five runs of their own. San Diego was the -119 favorite at home going into the game.

Joe Musgrove put together a good start for the Padres, going 3 2/3 innings and giving up just one earned run while striking out four. However, he did run into some trouble in the 4th inning, giving up the lead and issuing two walks. Kyle Higashioka had only one hit, but it was a home run. The Padres scored their other four runs on singles.

As the Padres prepare to face the Dodgers in game one of their NL Divisional Round series, they’ll be on the road, where they posted a 48-33 record this season, compared to 45-36 at home. San Diego went 62-43 as favorites and 33-26 as underdogs this year.

San Diego’s run line record for the season was 85-79, including 51-30 on the road. As underdogs, they went 41-18 against the run line. Their games averaged 8.8 total runs, while today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Padres’ over/under record for the season was 83-77.

Dodgers Records & Recent Play

Heading into their last game vs. the Rockies, the Dodgers closed out the series with a 2-1 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -154. Offensively, the Dodgers only had five hits but scored two runs. Chris Taylor’s homer in the 2nd inning was the big blow, and the Dodgers added another run in the 8th to close things out. Evan Phillips got the win out of the bullpen, and Edgardo Henriquez picked up the save.

Anthony Banda got the start for the Dodgers, going just one inning. He didn’t give up a run or a hit but was pulled after just one inning of work. The Dodgers used six other pitchers out of the bullpen, and none of them threw more than two innings.

As the Dodgers prepare to host the Padres in the opening game of their NL Divisional Round series, they’ll look to build on their five-game winning streak. Los Angeles finished the regular season with a 98-64 record, including a 52-29 mark at home and 46-35 on the road. As favorites, they went 92-52 this year.

Los Angeles posted an 81-81 run line record this season, with a +0.9 average run margin at home and +1.1 on the road. At home, they went 40-41 against the run line. The Dodgers’ over/under record for the year stands at 90-68, and 84% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line.

Pitching Matchup

Dylan Cease gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Dodgers on the road. Cease has made 33 starts this season and has a record of 14-11 with an ERA of 3.47. So far, he has pitched one complete game shutout and has 16 quality starts. Cease’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.07, and he is averaging 10.65 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Cease finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Cease has been especially tough on right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .196 batting average.

Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for the Dodgers today as he faces the Padres at home. He has made 18 starts this year and has a record of 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Yamamoto has a WHIP of 1.11 and opponents are batting .228 this season. In his 18 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Yamamoto’s last outing came on September 28th vs. the Rockies, where he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. He has not lost a game since August 25th.

Padres vs. Dodgers Offense Outlook

San Diego’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, coming in as the top batting average team in the league and also leading the MLB in home runs. Overall, they are 8th in the league in runs scored (4.7 per game). The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging five runs per contest.

Over the past seven games, Jackson Merrill has gone 8/24, and Kyle Higashioka has three homers in this stretch. Higashioka is also on a five-game hitting streak. Manny Machado has been a consistent power threat for the Padres, as his 29 homers are the best on the team and 15th best in the MLB. His 105 RBIs are 7th best in the league.

Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear for the Dodgers, hitting .628 with six homers over his last ten games. For the season, he is batting .310 with 130 RBIs, which is 2nd in the MLB. Ohtani’s 54 homers is also 2nd in the league. Teoscar Hernandez is also having a strong season for the Dodgers, as he is batting .272 with 33 homers.

As a team, the Dodgers lead the league in OPS, slugging percentage, and isolated power. They are also the 2nd highest-scoring team in the league at 5.2 runs per game. Not only do they have the best OPS in the league, but they are also 2nd in team on-base percentage and have the top slugging percentage in the league.

Free Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Pick

Yet again, the Dodgers head into the post-season, looking to redeem themselves after a shocking exit from the playoffs by the Diamondbacks last year. Heading into game one, they are the favorite on the money line. However, the Padres have a lot of momentum heading into this one, and I expect this to continue in game one. My pick for this one is to take the Padres on the money line.