Padres vs. Dodgers NLDS Game 5: Can San Diego Pull Off the Upset?

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Friday, October 11th, 8:08 ET
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: FOX
Money Line: Padres +123/Dodgers -144
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Padres on Friday, October 11th at Dodger Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

The Dodgers and Padres are set to square off in Game 3 of the NLDS at 8:08 PM ET on Friday. This one is being played at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -144. The Padres are at +123 on the money line, and the over/under line is at eight runs.

Yu Darvish will start for the Padres, and he will be facing off against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers are up 2-0 in the series and have won five straight games. The Padres are 93-69 overall, and the Dodgers have an overall record of 98-64.

Padres vs. Dodgers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Diego Padres: 93-69 SU / OU 86-77 / Runline 86-82
Los Angeles Dodgers: 98-64 SU / OU 93-68 / Runline 84-82

Los Angeles cruised to an easy 8-0 win over the Padres in the most recent game of this series. The Dodgers had a huge 3rd inning, scoring seven of their eight runs. As for the Padres, they had their best chance to score in the 7th, but could only muster five hits and left eight runners on base.

Ryan Brasier only went 1 1/3 innings for the Dodgers but didn’t give up a run and got the win. Dylan Cease had a rough outing for the Padres, going just 1 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs.

Gavin Lux and Mookie Betts each homered for the Dodgers, while Will Smith went 1/5 with two RBIs. Enrique Hernandez also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Los Angeles’ offense.

Padres Records & Recent Play

Facing a must-win game on the road against the Dodgers, the Padres will look to extend their postseason run. San Diego finished the regular season with a 93-69 record, including a 48-33 mark on the road and 45-36 at home. As favorites, they went 63-44 this year, while posting a 34-27 record as underdogs.

San Diego’s run line record is 86-82 overall, with a 52-31 mark against the run line on the road. As underdogs, they’ve gone 42-19 against the run line. The Padres’ games have averaged 8.8 total runs this season, and their over/under record is 86-77. Today’s over/under line is set at 8 runs.

Dodgers Records & Recent Play

As the Dodgers prepare for this must-win game against the Padres, they’ll be looking to extend their five-game winning streak. Los Angeles finished the regular season with a 98-64 record, including a 52-29 mark at home and a 46-35 record on the road. As favorites, they went 93-53 this year.

Los Angeles posted an 84-82 run line record this season, with an average run margin of +0.9 per game. At home, their run line record was 41-42. The Dodgers’ over/under record is 93-68, while today’s line of 8 runs is below their season average of 9 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Yu Darvish has been pitching well for the Padres, coming into the game with a record of 7-3 and an ERA of 3.31. He has made 16 starts and five of them have been quality starts. Darvish’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.06. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Looking back over his last four outings, Darvish has given up a total of three earned runs. So far, he has been unbeatable on the road, going 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA.

Through 18 starts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a record of 7-2 and an ERA of 3.00. This season, he has made seven quality starts and is averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Yamamoto finished with a no-decision, giving up five earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight starts without taking the loss. Yamamoto has been much better on the road, coming in with an ERA of 2.14 compared to 8.04 at home.

Padres vs. Dodgers Offense Outlook

The Padres come into the game as the league’s top hitting team, with a team batting average of .263. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have the best slugging percentage in the league. San Diego’s offense is also very good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are the league’s top-ranked team in this category. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 8th in the league.

Manny Machado has been the Padres’ top power threat this season, as his 29 home runs are the best mark on the team and 15th best in the league. He also comes into the game with the 7th most RBIs in the league, at 105. Over his last seven games, he has gone 11/26 with four homers. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are also near the top of the Padres’ home run leaderboard, with 24 homers apiece.

Shohei Ohtani has been a force in the Dodgers lineup this season, batting .310 with a league-leading 130 RBIs and 54 home runs, which is also the best mark in the league. Teoscar Hernández has also been a key run producer for the Dodgers, as his 33 homers are 2nd on the team and 13th in the MLB. Hernández comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 11/29 (.379) with three homers.

As a team, the Dodgers are 2nd in scoring at 5.2 runs per game and have been even better on the road this season at 5.4 runs per contest. They are also the league’s top power-hitting team, with a collective isolated power mark of .188. Overall, they are batting .258, which is the 3rd best mark in the league.

Free Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Pick

It is no surprise that this series is coming down to a winner take all game, and it will be back in front of an LA crowd that will be charged up to see their Dodgers advance. Heading into the game, the Dodgers have the edge on the money line, but I’m rolling with Yu Darvish and the Padres in this one. Look for Darvish to put together an excellent outing for San Diego. I like the Padres on the money line.