Padres vs. Diamondbacks: Betting Preview & Expert Picks

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Date: Sunday, September 29th, 3:10 ET
Location: Chase Field
TV: None
Money Line: Padres +153/Diamondbacks -182
Total Line: 9

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Padres on Sunday, September 29th at Chase Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 3:10 PM ET, the Padres and Diamondbacks face off in an NL West matchup. This one is taking place at Chase Field in Phoenix and has the Padres as +153 money line underdogs. The Diamondbacks are favored at -182 and have an over/under line of 9 runs.

Brandon Pfaadt is starting for the Diamondbacks, while the Padres are going with Martín Pérez. San Diego is currently on a two-game winning streak, and their overall record of 93-68 has them second in the NL West. Arizona is 3rd in the division at 88-73.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Diego Padres: 93-68 SU / OU 81-76 / Runline 84-77
Arizona Diamondbacks: 88-73 SU / OU 91-62 / Runline 83-78

It was all San Diego in the last game of this series, as the Padres took down the Diamondbacks by a score of 5-0. The Padres offense only had three more hits than the Diamondbacks and struck out seven times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +186 on the money line.

This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Randy Vásquez for the Padres and Eduardo Rodriguez for the Diamondbacks. Vásquez only went six innings but didn’t give up a hit or a run and finished with four strikeouts. On the other side, Rodriguez was tagged for four hits and three earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.

Arizona had a chance to get back into the game in the 7th inning, as they loaded the bases with no outs. However, Wandy Peralta came out of the bullpen for the Padres and got out of the jam without giving up a run. Peralta ended up getting the win in the game.

Padres Records & Recent Play

San Diego is four games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead as they are 93-68 overall. The Padres have won two straight games, and they are 7-3 over their last 10. This season, they have gone 27-24 in divisional games.

At home, the Padres are 45-36 this year, and they have been really good on the road at 48-32. San Diego has been tough as the underdog on the road, going 26-17 this year. As the underdog overall, the Padres are 33-25, and 60-43 as the favorite.

San Diego has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 84-77 overall. They have been particularly strong on the run line on the road, going 51-29. They have covered the run line in their last two road games and have covered in five straight games as an underdog.

San Diego’s over/under record is 81-76 this season, and the over/under line for today’s game against the Diamondbacks is set at nine runs. The Padres’ games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at nine runs, their over/under record is 6-6. Only 9.3% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at nine runs, and their current under streak is at two games.

Diamondbacks Records & Recent Play

Arizona will host the Padres today with an overall record of 88-73, which has them nine games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Currently, they are in 3rd place in the division and have gone 27-24 in divisional games. The Diamondbacks lost the first two games of this series vs. the Padres, and they are 5-5 across their last ten games.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 43-37 at home compared to a mark of 45-36 on the road. Arizona has dropped two straight games, and they are 2-2 as the home favorite over the last two weeks. As the favorite overall, the Diamondbacks are 52-34 this season, and they are 36-39 as the underdog. So far this year, their overall series record is 27-19-4.

Arizona has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 83-78 overall. They have been better on the road, going 48-33, compared to 35-45 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 47-28, compared to 36-50 as the favorite. They have been outscored by 0.6 runs per game overall this season but have a positive run differential on the road at 0.7 runs per game.

Arizona has played to a 91-62 over/under record this season, and the combined run average in their games is 10.3. When the over/under line has been set at 9, their record is 19-13-4. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 9, and the Diamondbacks have played in 24 games this season with a higher line than that, which accounts for 14.9% of their games. They are currently on a 2-game under streak.

Pitching Matchup

Left-hander Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. So far this season, he has made 25 starts and has a record of 5-5 with a 4.25 ERA. Looking back at his last outing, Pérez picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one earned run on six hits. He has made eight quality starts this year and is averaging 7.13 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, Pérez has allowed 21 home runs and is averaging 3.22 walks per nine innings.

Arizona is starting right-hander Brandon Pfaadt vs. the Padres today. He has made 31 starts this year and has a record of 10-10 with a 4.80 ERA. Pfaadt’s WHIP for the season is 1.25, and he has turned in 13 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Pfaadt took the loss vs. the Giants, going just 2 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came vs. the Padres, where he pitched seven innings and gave up just one earned run. Per nine innings, Pfaadt is averaging 8.98 strikeouts and 2.09 walks.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Offense Outlook

San Diego comes into the game as the league’s top-hitting team, with a batting average of .264. They are also 8th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging five runs per contest. One of the strengths of the Padres lineup is that they have the fewest strikeouts in the league.

Manny Machado has been a big run producer for the Padres this season, as his 105 RBIs are 7th in the league. He also leads the team with 29 homers. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill have also been solid run producers, as they have 85 and 90 RBIs, respectively. Luis Arraez has been a solid all-around hitter for the Padres, batting .314 with a .346 on-base percentage.

Arizona comes into the game as the top-scoring team in the MLB this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have a team batting average of .262, which is the 2nd best mark in the league, and they also lead the league in on-base percentage.

Over his last five games, Corbin Carroll has gone 6/19 (.316) with one home run and two RBIs. For the season, he is batting .291. Arizona’s top power hitter is Ketel Marte, who is 8th in the league with 35 homers and is 2nd on the team with 93 RBIs. Eugenio Suarez has also been a big run producer for the Diamondbacks, as his 99 RBIs are the 11th best in the league.

Free Padres vs. Diamondbacks MLB Pick

The Diamondbacks have to be kicking themselves right now, as the Mets have lost three straight, which would have been a perfect chance for Arizona to take hold of the final Wild Card spot. However, they have dropped two straight themselves and are in desperate need of a win. I do see Arizona winning this one today, and would take them to cover the run line. But after that, their playoff chances lie, with the Mets continuing their recent skid.