Yankees vs. Nationals 6/18/18
Where: Nationals Park
When: June 18th, 2018 7:05PM ET
Moneyline: NYY -116 / WAS +106
Over/Under: 9
By Prognosticator Darin Zank
The Yankees and Nationals are busy in DC Monday, playing at least a game and a half. And we’ve found what we think is a good lean for one of our daily free MLB picks on the later action.
The Line
Monday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Sonny Gray at around -125 over Washington and Erick Fedde, with an over/under of 9. The early betting action then dropped that line about a nickel, to the -120 range.
Monday Set-Up
This game is being made up following a postponement back in May. In fact, the teams will complete a suspended game that is tied at 3-3 in the sixth inning before playing this one.
The Yanks just took three out of four games at home from Tampa over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday 3-1. So New York is 6-0-2 over its last eight series and 13-4 over its last 17 games.
Also, the Yankees amazingly have also played 12 unders in a row, because they’ve scored more than four runs just twice over that span, but held opponents to three runs or less ten times.
Washington, meanwhile, just got swept three games in Toronto over the weekend, losing Sunday 8-6. So the Nats are 0-2-1 over their last three series and 2-6 over their last eight games.
At 46-21 the Yankees are tied with Boston for the lead in the AL East and the best record in the American League.
At 37-31 the Nationals trail first-place Atlanta by 3.5 games in the NL East but also own the second NL wild-card spot, for the moment.
Monday’s Mound Match-Up
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last Wednesday, a 5-4 Washington victory.
Fedde (0-1, 5.91) is 0/2 on quality starts this season, which for him just began last month, after starting 11 games down at Triple-A Syracuse earlier this year. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs and a pair of home runs in five innings against these Yankees, and back in May, he gave up three runs in 5 2/3 innings against San Diego. The Nationals are 1-1 with Fedde, with the totals splitting 1-1.
Gray (4-4, 4.98), by our strict standards, is 6/13 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs in five innings against these Nationals, but in his two starts previous to that he held Toronto and Baltimore to one run and six hits through 14 innings, with 14 strikeouts. The Yankees, a team that’s 25 games over .500, are 6-7 with Gray this year, overs 7-5.
Gray also faced Washington once last year, when he was with Oakland, and gave up three runs through seven innings of a game the A’s eventually lost 11-10.
Gray hasn’t been great this year, but we’re giving him the edge in this pitching match-up.
Monday’s Batting Splits
New York ranks 12th in the Majors this year against right-handed pitching with a .250 team batting average, 4th with a .326 team OBP and 2nd with a .458 team slugging percentage.
Washington ranks 23rd against RHP with a .237 BA, 15th with a .316 OBP and 17th with a .401 slugging percentage.
So the Yanks own our handicapping check-mark with the sticks for Monday.
The Bullpens
The New York bullpen ranks 5th in the ML with a 2.88 ERA and 2nd with a 1.12 WHIP, while going 21/29 on save opportunities.
The Nats pen ranks 12th in ERA at 3.74 and 5th in WHIP at 1.17 while going 22/30 on save opps.
Also, while the Yankees bullpen only had to throw 2 1/3 innings Saturday and Sunday, Washington’s threw six. And remember, there’s the conclusion of a postponed game before this one today, which will an affect who’s available for this game.
Whatever the case, we’re giving New York the check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens.
Free MLB Picks
We give the Yanks the edge in all our main baseball handicapping factors, and they’re playing on the road, where we know they’ll bat nine times. We’ll take New York and give the run and a half against the run line.
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