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Game 2 Pick: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox Total

by | Oct 6, 2018 | mlb

Masahiro Tanaka starts versus the Twins
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox 10/6/18

Time: 8:15 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Listed Pitchers: Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) vs. David Price (Bos)
TV: TBS
Moneyline: Yankees +100/Red Sox -110
Over/Under: 9

The Red Sox grabbed Game 1 of this best-of-five American League divisional-round playoff series with the rival Yankees Friday night, and shoot for a 2-0 lead Saturday night. How are we playing this contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Playoff Betting Line

Saturday’s MLB playoff betting odds opened the Red Sox at around -125 for this Game 2, with an over/under of 9 runs. The early betting action then dipped that line as much as 15 cents, to around -110.

Boston could also be found getting around +165 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

The Red Sox took the opener of this series Friday night 5-4, to the relief of bettors who backed them at a price of -160. Boston took a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning on a three-run homer by JD Martinez and tacked on two more runs in the third for a 5-0 lead. But New York nibbled away, scoring two runs in the top of the sixth, one in the seventh, then getting a solo home run from Aaron Judge to lead off the top of the ninth. But they could get no closer.

The Yanks had chances but left two runners on in the fourth inning, the bases loaded in the sixth and two more on in the seventh. On the whole, New York finished just 1/7 at the bat Friday night with runners in scoring position.

Friday’s game also played over a total of 7.5 runs.

Boston finished eight games ahead of New York in the regular-season standings, winning 108 games. The Red Sox also took the regular-season series from the Yanks 10 games to nine.

Saturday’s Starters

This pitching match-up is a rematch of games played back on April 11 and Aug. 5 of this season. New York won that first meeting 10-7 while Boston took the second 5-4.

Lefty Price (16-7, 3.58), by our strict standards, is 17/30 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two. Ten days ago he gave up three runs and six hits, including a couple of homers, through five innings Baltimore, and just before that he gave up four earned runs and five hits, including three dingers, against these Yankees. However, just prior to that Price fashioned a 9/10 run on quality starts, so he was going pretty good into September.

On the season Boston is a solid 22-8 with Price and 11-2 over his last 13 outings.

However, in four starts this season against the Yankees Price got bombed for 18 ER and 21 hits, including nine home runs, through 15 2/3 innings. The Sox went just 1-3 in those games, with overs going 3-1.

Tanaka (12-6, 3.75) is 13/27 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last two. Ten days ago he gave up three ER and six hits through four innings against Tampa Bay, and just before that he gave up five runs in four innings against these Red Sox. However, just before that Tanaka went three starts allowing only one run through 21 innings. On the season New York is 16-11 with Tanaka, but 0-2 over his last two outings.

In four starts this year against Boston Tanaka allowed 16 ER and 29 hits, including six homers, through 19 innings. The Yanks split those four games, with overs going 3-1.

These two guys may throw from opposite sides of the rubber, but statistically, they’re very similar. For our handicapping purposes here we’re calling this department a push.

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Friday’s Batting Splits

New York posted a .248/.331/.470 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against left-handed pitching this season.

Boston put up a .275/.344/.473 split against right-handers this year.

We’ll give the Red Sox a short edge in the splits with the sticks for Saturday.

The Bullpens

The Yanks bullpen posted a 3.38 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while going 49/67 on save opportunities.

The Boston pen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP while going 46/66 on save opps.

We’ll give New York a short edge in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 37-36 at Fenway Park this year, as Sox home games averaged 9.8 total runs per.
  • Overs are 8-0 in New York’s last eight games.
  • Overs are 10-1-1 in Boston’s last 12 games.
  • Overs are 12-6-2 in Yanks-Sox games this year.

Free MLB Picks

We bet the Yankees Friday based on value and came up just short. As for Saturday, we can’t tell who’s going to win but based on the recent track records of the starting pitchers against these opponents we’re thinking some runs might be scored. So we’re going over the total here for our with our free MLB pick. Looking for a new wagering account? Get the lowdown on the best sign up bonuses (real value).

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