NY Mets (1st – NL East) at San Diego Padres (5th – NL West)
Where: Petco Park
When: April 29, 2018 4:05PM EST
Moneyline: mets -129 / Padres +119
Over/Under: 8
By expert handicapper Rich Crew
The NY Mets and the San Diego Padres will go at it again on Sunday afternoon in the rubber match of a three-game set at Petco Park. The MLB betting board lists the visiting Mets as a -129 money line favorite with the total line offered up at eight runs.
In yesterday game the Padres crushed the Mets 12-2 getting to starter Jason Vargas early and often in the “laugher.” The win put an end to three-game skid by San Diego whose offense has struggled mightily over the last seven games failing the reach three runs in five of the matches. The loss by New York was their third in the previous four games, and they’ll be hoping to end their nine-game road trip on a good note with a victory and a series win after losing sets in St. Louis and Atlanta.
Pitching Match-Up
The Mets send out right-hander Zack Wheeler in the finale to make his fourth start of the season. He’s coming off a rough outing versus the Cardinals where he gave up four runs in four innings, but he did pitch well in his first two recording a quality start in both outings. Wheeler hasn’t started against the Padres since 2014, but he did pitch well in both starts at Petco Park throwing a combined 12 innings allowing just two runs.
The Padres counter with Bryan Mitchell who will be taking the mound for the fifth time this season. Mitchell has been sketchy this season with one QS in his four starts which was the only time that he pitched through the six. His home record is worrisome getting tagged with two losses in three starts and brings a 7.07 home earned run average into this game. This start will be Mitchell’s first career against New York.
Betting Trends
- NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last six games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets’ last nine games
- NY Mets are 2-4 ATS in its last six games on the road
- NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last six games on the road
- San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last five games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego’s last seven games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last six games when playing at home against NY Mets
Public Money
The Mets are taking most of the action from the public with 74% of the money line betting landing on the visitor. The O/U wagering has been all OVER with 79% of the wagers being placed on that side of the line.
Mets at Padres Prediction 4/29/18
The Mets line is on the high side for me, or I’d probably jump in on them in this spot. That said, the total looks interesting here. Padres starter Bryan Mitchell performances this season have been for the most part inadequate with just one quality start in four outings and while that did come in his last at home has an embarrassing 7.07 home ERA this campaign. Zach Wheeler has mediocre at best numbers on the season and can get blown up if the wind is blowing out which is the forecast for this afternoon. The bats of the Padres woke up yesterday and third baseman Christian Villanueva can be trouble for any pitcher.
Crew’s Pick: Take the OVER 8 runs at 5Dimes to get the best line on this game and guys if you don’t have an account here, now is the time to save money all season long with this betting shop’s overnight nickel lines and dime line betting on game day!