NY Mets at Atlanta Braves Odds & Picks

New York Mets (18-16) vs. Atlanta Braves (19-21)
When: 7 p.m., Monday, May 17
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Moneyline: NYM +115/ATL -125 (Find the best sportsbook bonus >>>)
Runline: Mets +1.5/Braves -1.5
Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Tajuan Walker (3-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) vs. Max Fried (1-1, 6.55 ERA, 1.73 WHIP)

Making a Move

This is when the season really gets started for both of these teams, who initially had been the favorites to claim the NL East title. Atlanta and New York haven’t yet faced each other in 2021, and they’ll play each other 19 times over the remaining 120-plus games, meaning roughly one out of every 11 games on these teams’ remaining schedule will be played against each other.

In recent years, that tended to favor Atlanta. Since the Braves resumed their role as the NL East’s best team in the regular season by winning the division in 2018, they’ve won the season series with the Mets in all three seasons, including a 7-3 edge against the last-place Mets in 2020. Part of that is because the Mets have bum-bled around the basement in two of the past three years. While the Braves have surged into postseason play, but those days are supposed to be over for New York now that Steve Cohen is in charge. This is the time for the Mets to prove they’re really a contender.

April Explosions Bring May Solutions

To put it mildly, Max Fried had a disastrous April, as he got lit up in consecutive starts against the Nationals and Marlins, making quite a few people wonder what was going on with the Braves’ hurler. However, since the calendar turned to May, Fried has looked more like his old self. In his two May starts, he’s allowed just one earned run in each and a combined six hits, which has given Atlanta a chance to win each time.

Fried actually hasn’t gotten to pitch against the Mets at home all that often, as due to a quirk of scheduling, the majority of his starts against New York have been in Queens rather than Georgia. But even with that dis-advantage, the Braves have won five of Fried’s past seven starts against the Mets, and Atlanta has come out the winner in all three of Fried’s starts against the Mets in Georgia. Fried hasn’t faced New York at Truist Park since 2019, but he pitched well against the Mets the last two times he got to pitch against them at home, holding them to just three runs total in 12 innings of work.

Power Outage

If there’s one place Steve Cohen is going to spend his money in order to make the Mets contenders, it’s going to be on their bats. Of course, that was exactly what he tried to do during this offseason by bringing in Fran-cisco Lindor, but it appears that Cleveland once again sold one of its stars at the perfect time, as Lindor has just three home runs and has hit a mere .190. Pete Alonso hasn’t been a lot better, hitting .246 with seven home runs in 34 games.

With their stars not producing, the Mets haven’t done much producing either. New York has the lowest runs per game in the majors at 3.4 runs per game, which is why the Mets have consistently found themselves get-ting totals of around 7 or 8 runs. Even with the low totals, the Mets have still been an under team this year, in large part because the Mets’ pitching has been very good. New York’s team ERA sits at 3.30, good for fifth in MLB and the main reason why they’ve managed a winning record despite scoring fewer runs than anyone.

Betting Trends

• The Mets are 2-5 in their past seven games overall on the road.
• The Mets are 1-4 in their past five road games against a team below .500.
• The Braves are 6-1 in their past seven games against the NL East.
• The Braves are 2-5 in their past seven home games.
• The over is 6-2 in the Mets’ past eight road games.
• The over is 5-1 in the Braves’ past six games against a right-handed starter.
• The Mets are 2-7 in their past nine meetings with the Braves.
• The Braves are 9-3 in their past 12 matchups with the Mets in Atlanta.

Weather Report

The wind will be coming in on this one, with winds blowing south-southeast at eight miles per hour on a 78-degree day in Atlanta.

Dan’s Pick

With Fried seemingly regaining his form, I think there’s a good chance that he continues his mastery of the Mets. Fried struggled in the first month of the season, but he seems to be back on his game now, while the Mets’ hitters still look very much off balance. New York just went to Tampa and got swept, and the Mets real-ly haven’t been a good road team all season, as their record outside of Queens is just 7-12.

That’s not a good combination against a team that’s dominated this division for the past three years and knows it needs to come up big in its first opportunity of 2021 to make a move. Give me Atlanta in this one.