New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick 9/9/19

New York Yankees (94-50) vs. Boston Red Sox (76-67), 9/9/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET Monday, Sept. 9
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Listed Pitchers: James Paxton (12-6, 4.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (17-5, 3.81, 1.36)
TV: MLB, YES, NESN

Moneyline: Yankees -110/Red Sox +100 (Bovada)
Over/Under: 10

The Yankees shoot for the series victory while hoping to add to the woes of the Red Sox when the teams finish off a four-game series Monday night at Fenway Park. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Boston and Rodriguez at around -115 over New York and Paxton, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then flipped the Yankees into -110 favorites.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Set-Up

Boston took the opener of this series Friday night 6-1, but New York won Saturday’s contest 5-1 and Sunday night’s game 10-5. The Red Sox won Friday as +115 home underdogs on the MLB betting line, while the Yankees won as -120 chalk both Saturday and Sunday.

With Sunday’s win, New York is 10-3 over its last 13 games. At 94-50 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by 8.5 games over second-place Tampa Bay, and they’re also tied with Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League.

With Sunday’s loss, Boston is just 3-5 over its last eight games. At 76-67 overall the Red Sox trail New York by a whopping 17.5 games in the AL East, and they’re now eight games behind Oakland in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

In other words, Boston is just about dead in the playoff race, one season after winning the World Series.

Sunday’s loss also struck a sour note with the Red Sox front office, resulting in the firing of their director of baseball operations.

The Yankees now lead the season series with Boston 13 games to five.

Monday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on Aug. 2 also at Yankee Stadium, a 4-2 New York victory.

Lefty Rodriguez, by our strict standards, is 12/29 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Wednesday he held Minnesota scoreless on five hits through seven innings of a 6-2 Red Sox victory. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed just three runs and 23 hits through 26 1/3 innings.

On the season Boston is a remarkable 22-7 with Rodriguez, 4-0 over his last four starts.

In three starts against New York, this season Rodriguez allowed nine runs and 16 hits through 17 2/3 innings. The Red Sox lost two of those three games.

Fellow southpaw Paxton is 10/25 on quality starts this year and two for his last three. Last Tuesday he held Texas scoreless on one hit through seven innings, with 12 strikeouts, in a 10-1 Yankees victory. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed just four runs and seven hits through 18 2/3 innings, with 27 whiffs.

On the season New York is 16-9 with Paxton, 7-0 over his last seven starts.

In three starts this season against Boston Paxton allowed nine runs and 13 hits, including five home runs, through 18 innings. The Yankees won two of those three games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .270/.342/.487 against left-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top five in the Majors in this split.
Boston is batting .258/.327/.466 against LH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 4.06 ERA this season and a 1.31 WHIP while allowing a .723 OPS. The Red Sox pen owns a 4.24 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP while allowing a .726 OPS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 76-63 in Yankees games this season.
• Overs are 79-60 in Red Sox games this season.
• Overs are 41-33 in games played at Fenway Park this season.
• Overs are 10-8 in Yanks-Sox games this season.
• Overs are a combined 36-17 with Rodriguez and Paxton this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re calling Monday’s pitching match-up a push, but we give New York the edge in both the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Also, the Yankees are just playing the better ball as of late, chasing the best record in Baseball, while Boston is now basically playing out the string on a lost season. So we’re going with New York for our free MLB pick for Monday.