New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick 6/26/21

New York Yankees (40-35) vs. Boston Red Sox (45-31)
When: 7:15 p.m., Saturday, June 26
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
Moneyline: NYY +100/BOS -120 (GTBets – Get a 100% bonus up to $500! Real cash, not a crappy match play!)
Runline: Yankees +1.5/Red Sox -1.5
Total: 10

Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (7-4, 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)

Rivalry Reversal

For the past 17 years, you could say that the Red Sox have actually had the upper hand in this rivalry. After all, Boston has four World Series titles to the Yankees’ one in that period, and the Red Sox’s closest competitor in recent years in the division has been Tampa Bay. The Yankees seemed like they were getting back on track last year when Boston missed the playoffs and finished fourth in the AL East, but things have returned to the new normal this year to this point, as the Red Sox have won all four meetings against the Yankees.

The biggest change in this rivalry has been the identities of these teams. The Yankees have long been a team that knows how to slug the ball, but in 2021, their offense has been nowhere near as good as Boston’s. For the year, Boston has outscored New York by 75 runs.

Two Games On, Two Games Off

Whether to bet the Red Sox under or over has been dictated by which pitcher the Red Sox sends to the hill because lately, two pitchers have been a sign that it’ll be a low-scoring game, while the other two suggest runs won’t be a problem. When it’s been Martin Perez or Nick Pivetta taking the mound, the runs haven’t been coming for either side. In their past four starts combined, they’ve given up a total of 24 runs, and the under has cashed on all four occasions. Conversely, when it’s been Eduardo Rodriguez or Garrett Richards, both sides have had little trouble scoring.

The wild card is Saturday starter Nathan Eovaldi, who hasn’t really fit into either group thanks to the books going all over the map when trying to decide his totals. In his past six starts, Eovaldi has gone under on four occasions, with one of those coming in a win over the Yankees that came in two runs under the total.

Logic says that Eovaldi should be getting the same kind of totals as Perez and Pivetta (who consistently get totals of double digits despite their successes), and he’s been given that here which could make this a good time to bet under if he pitches as well as he did the last time he saw the Yankees. In that start, he scattered eight hits but held New York to just one earned run.

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Close Calls

On the one hand, when the Yankees need a win, Jordan Montgomery has been one of the main men they call on to get them in the win column, which he’s helped them do in eight of his past nine starts. On the other hand, when Montgomery takes to the mound, the Yankees usually have to sweat things out a bit.

The Yankees have won all six of Montgomery’s past six starts, but in five of them, the winning pitcher came out of the bullpen, and in four of them, the win came by exactly one run. With New York’s inability to hit this season (the Yankees still rank 21st in runs scored per game), pretty much any game the Yankees play is likely to be a close one, as three of their past five games have been decided by one run. That’s well-reflected in the Yankees’ poor runline totals: New York is 29-46 this year on the run line.

Betting Trends

• The Yankees are 7-3 in their past ten games.
• The Yankees are 4-1 in their past five against a team with a winning record.
• The Red Sox are 7-2 in their past nine games as a home favorite.
• The Red Sox are 19-7 in their past 26 against the AL East.
• The over is 9-2-1 in the Yankees’ past 12 games as an underdog.
• The under is 3-0-1 in the Red Sox’s past four games on grass
• The Yankees have dropped five consecutive meetings.
• The over is 13-6-1 in the past 20 matchups in Boston.

Weather Report

Good news for the over: the wind is blowing out at 13 miles per hour. Bad news for the over: it’s going south-southwest, which means directly into the path of the Green Monster. It’ll be a nice night for baseball, with temperatures at 77 degrees.

Dan’s pick

I don’t trust the Yankees at all right now, and even though Boston hasn’t been a great home team this season, this should be the Red Sox’s day. Boston is hitting better and has looked more consistent as a whole, and the Red Sox seems to have the Yankees’ number at the moment.

Throw in that the Yanks are using a left-hander at Fenway, and this looks like too many edges in Boston’s direction to ignore. Give me the Red Sox. Bet your weekend baseball picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use promo/bonus code PREDICT100 to receive the extra bonus loot!)