New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners Prediction

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners 9/9/18 Pick
Time: 4:10 PM ET
Where: Safeco Field, Seattle, WA
Listed Pitchers: CC Sabathia (NY) & Erasmo Ramirez (Sea)
TV: YES, ROOT Northwest
Moneyline: Yankees -130/Mariners +120
Over/Under: 8.5

The Yankees are in the process of locking down a playoff berth, while the Mariners are fading from the playoff picture. How are we playing Sunday’s series finale between these teams with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Line

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened New York at around -135 for this game, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about a nickel, to around -130.

The Yanks could also be found getting around +120 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line. Check out 5Dimes reduced juice lines.

Set-Up

New York’s taken the first two games of this series, winning 4-0 Friday and 4-2 Saturday. So the Yankees are 3-1 over their last four games, while the Mariners are just 4-8 over their last 12.

At 89-53 overall the Yanks are probably not going catch division-leading Boston in the AL East, sitting 7.5 games back with 20 to play. But New York wants to host that American League wild-card game, and it only leads the wild-card race by 3.5 games over second-place Oakland.

Meanwhile, at 78-64 the M’s are 11 games back in the AL West and 7.5 games out of the second AL wild-card spot. They’re not dead yet, but the prognosis ain’t good.

The Yankees lead this season series with the Mariners five games to none.

Sunday’s Starters

Ramirez (2-3, 5.56), by our strict standards, is only 1/7 on quality starts this season, and 1/5 since coming off the DL a little less than a month ago. But he’s actually been good as of late, outside of one bad outing. In his first three starts coming back he allowed just two earned runs through 16 innings, then got bombed by San Diego for seven runs in just three innings. But Monday he held Baltimore to one run and two hits through 5 1/3 innings. On the season Seattle is 4-3 with Ramirez, with overs going 5-2.

In one start last year against New York while with Tampa Bay Ramirez allowed two runs and six hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 5-4 Rays victory.

Lefty Sabathia (7-6, 3.54) is 9/25 on quality starts this year. He was going pretty good earlier this month, holding opponents to six runs through 23 2/3 innings, covering four starts. But Monday he got touched for five runs and seven hits through just 3 1/3 innings against Oakland. On the season the Yankees are 14-11 with Sabathia, with unders going 15-8.

In two starts last year against the Mariners Sabathia allowed just two runs and nine hits through 12 innings. New York split those two games, and both games played under the totals.

We’ll give Sabathia our handicapping check-mark in this pitching match-up, although not by as much as first glance might indicate.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

The Yanks own a .250/.327/.444 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season. However, this lineup is still operating without Aaron Judge (26 HR).

The M’s own a .252/.316/.387 split against left-handed pitching. But this lineup could be without Robinson Cano today, after he got hit by a pitch and had to leave the game Saturday night.

We’ll give New York the check-mark with the sticks for Sunday.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.15 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. This unit is operating without closer Aroldis Chapman, but Dellin Betances is 3/4 on save chances since taking over that role.

The Seattle pen owns a 3.98 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

New York gets the check-mark in this department, too.

Totals Report

Unders are 37-32 in games played at Safeco Field this year, which are averaging just 7.8 total runs per, third-fewest among all ML ballparks.

Unders are 4-1 in Yanks-M’s games this season.

Free MLB Picks

New York is 21 games above .500 this year, 61-40, against right-handed starters. Seattle is just one game above .500, 23-22 against left-handed starters. The Yankees also get all three of our main baseball handicapping check-marks. So not only are we going with New York for our free MLB pick for Sunday, we”ll take a chance and chase a better price against the run line.