New York Yankees at New York Mets Pick 7/3/19

New York Yankees (54-29) at New York Mets (39-47)
When: 7 p.m., Wednesday, July 3
Where: Citi Field, New York

Moneyline: NYY Off/NYM Off (Check 5Dimes)
Runline: Yanks Off/Mets Off
Total: Off

Starting Pitchers: Domingo German (9-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs. Jason Vargas (3.366, 1.28 )

Crossing the Pond

Are the Yankees still themselves after the long trip across the Atlantic? The Yanks did some mashing at West Ham United’s stadium in London, scoring 29 runs in two victories over their ancient rival, the Red Sox. But on Tuesday, they returned to American soil and immediately saw their home run streak stopped by the Mets, who aren’t exactly known for keeping the baseball in the park. In fact, the Mets have given up 11 more homers than the Boston pitching staff that the Bronx Bombers just pounded, which raises questions as to whether that was a bad night or if the Yankees left their bats in Britain.

The Yankees are being tasked with getting back on track after just an extra day of rest and crossing six time zones, something baseball hasn’t done before. Granted, Boston did the exact same thing and won its first game back, but the Red Sox had the good fortune to draw a weak Toronto squad off of the London trip. The Mets, though they’ve struggled, are far more competent than the Blue Jays.

The Pen Isn’t Mightier

The Mets’ bullpen, in a word, is pathetic. No two ways about it. If the Mets had anything behind their starting rotation, they’d likely be sitting in the midst of a dogfight between the Braves and Phillies in the NL East, as opposed to trying to hold off the Marlins and maintain their hold on fourth place. The good news for New York is that they’ve managed to get by in the past two games and turn them into wins. Against the Yankees, the Mets’ bullpen finally managed to hang on to a lead by not giving up a single run, giving them a modest two-game winning streak. If the Mets can take both games from the Yankees, it could be the spark that turns their season around…but they’ll need the bullpen to get out of its way to do it.

What’s German for Home Run?

The past three starts have not been kind to Domingo German, who has two no-decisions and a loss and has given up 14 runs in his last 14.2 innings of work. A large part of that has been because the Dominican-born pitcher can’t keep the ball in the park as of late. In one start, he gave up four moon shots to the offensive powerhouse that is the Kansas City Royals — who rank 27th in baseball with 84 home runs on the season. He gave up another two bombs to Cleveland, which isn’t much better at going deep than Kansas City is this year. His ERA has gone up a full run in the past three starts, and that’s a worry against the Mets, who, for all of their bullpen troubles, can actually hit decently. They rank 12th in average and 14th in home runs this season, which means they can take advantage of mistakes.

The Historicals

A win means that the Mets win the season series with the Yankees at 3 games to 1. The Mets haven’t won the series with the Yankees since 2013 when they won all four against their Subway Series rivals. The Mets went 74-88 that year

Betting Trends

• The Yankees are 4-1 in their past five road games.
• The Mets are 6-0 in their past six home games in their past six against teams that are .600 or better on the road.
• The Yankees have won five straight against a left-handed starter.
• The Mets have won Vargas’ past six starts in a series’ second game.
• The under is 5-1 in their past six games following a Yankees loss
• The under is 4-1 in the Mets’ previous five games when following a Mets win.

Weather Report

Temperatures will be high, creeping up toward 80 at first pitch.

Dan’s pick

On paper, the Yankees are the absolute pick. But they struggled in their past game, and nothing about them or the Mets convinces me that this game will be a rout. I like the Mets’ pitching staff and how it’s getting leads to its relievers before the bullpen has blown it.

The Mets finally put together a win in their most recent outing against these Yankees, and I think the Yanks will still be on propeller lag when they take the field in this one. Give me the Mets to finish off the season series the right way and take down the Yankees.