New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins Prediction 7/23/19

New York Yankees (64-35) at Minnesota Twins (61-38)
When: 8 p.m., Tuesday, July 23
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis

Moneyline: NYY -115/MIN +105 (BetAnySports)
Runline: Yanks -1.5/Twins +1.5
Total: 10

Starting Pitchers: Domingo German (12-2, 3.38 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) vs. Kyle Gibson (9-4, 4.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

Success Allergy

Take a look at the raw numbers for Kyle Gibson, and things look decent for the right-hander in terms of WHIP and record. But that record conceals a rather irritating flaw when betting on Gibson: since June began, he has not followed up a win with another quality start, nor has he won any of his subsequent starts after earning a win in that stretch.

After getting a good win over Tampa Bay on June 1, Gibson turned around and conceded five to Detroit, not exactly a strong team, and took a 9-3 loss. He bounced back with a win over Kansas City but then got shelled again, this time giving up six runs to Boston in another loss. In his third appearance, he didn’t have a chance to follow up a win over the Rays with a victory because Minnesota moved him to the bullpen after beating Tampa Bay, and while he got through one inning, it was not enough to stave off defeat.

So Gibson enters this matchup with pretty long odds of producing a great pitching performance and a loss to the Yankees already on his mark this season.

Coming Up Boxcars

Six has been the magic number for Domingo German in each of his past four starts, with the latter three coming since his return off the injured list. In all of them, German went exactly six innings, putting up some strong numbers along the way.

The main area where he’s been successful is preventing runs on pitches that don’t leave the ballpark. Over the past three games, the only runs to come off of German have been via solo home runs, a streak that has now reached 20 consecutive innings. It’s one of the biggest reasons why he’s shooting for his 13th win of the season in this start, a number which would be tops in the majors.

Rare Slump

Dropping three straight hasn’t happened as of late for the Yankees. New York has been fantastic at stopping skids before they get out of hand and salvaging at least one win out of three in the series. But this time, the Yankees might be on their way to a true slump if they can’t figure out how to get back in the win column. New York hasn’t dropped three in a row since June 14, when it lost one to the Mets and then two to the White Sox. Not coincidentally, that was during the time that German was on the injured list.

The Historicals

The Yankees really know what they’re doing against the Twins. Since 2015, the Bronx Bombers have bombed the Twins, winning 21 out of 30 games against Minnesota. This year has been a little more competitive, as the Twins have split four games with the Yankees this season.

Betting Trends

• The Yankees are 6-0 in German’s past six starts following a quality start.
• The Yankees are 6-1 in German’s past seven starts when the opponent scored five or more runs the day before.
• The Twins are 8-2 in their past 10 Game 2’s
• The Twins are 4-1 in Gibson’s previous five starts.
• The under is 5-0 in German’s past five starts.
• The Twins have lost in Gibson’s past seven starts against the Yankees.

Weather Report

The temperature in the Midwest has dropped considerably, and Tuesday’s game will be played in mild 65-degree temperatures.

Dan’s pick

The Yankees have their best pitcher on the mound, they’ve got an excellent track record against the Twins, and Gibson is the definition of inconsistent. From my point of view, there doesn’t seem to be much of a downside to taking the Yankees. Sure, the Twins are a great team and very capable of extending the Yankees’ misery if the New York bats aren’t getting the job done. But I don’t see this version of the Yankees giving in to this version of the Twins.

With the Yankees mostly healthy and finally back to full strength, I think the rest of the American League is going to find the going tough against them for much of the second half of the season. For me, I’m not going to overthink this game; I’m taking the Yankees to extend their dominance of the Twins and put an end to their losing streak.