New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Pick 6/3/21

New York Mets (27-21) vs. San Diego Padres (34-23)
When: 10 p.m., Thursday, June 3
Where: Petco Park, San Diego
Moneyline: NYM +155/SD -175 (BAS)
Runline: Mets +1.5/Padres -1.5
Total: 6.5

Starting Pitchers: Taijuan Walker (4-1, 1.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) vs. Yu Darvish (5-1, 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP)

On Again, Off Again

Baseball players thrive on consistency, and no team has had a less consistent schedule than the Mets, who have had a game disrupted in two of their past three series. New York finally got to play uninterrupted because Arizona has a retractable roof, but before that, the Mets had two games with the Braves and one with the Rockies washed out. Thanks to the Nationals getting COVID to start the season, no team has had a more disjointed open to the year than the Mets, who are the only team in baseball that hasn’t played 50 games.

And yet, it hasn’t seemed to hurt them that much, as they have taken full advantage of their bumbling division mates’ failure to get on the positive side of the ledger. New York is also the only team in the NL East that has a winning record, and with the postseason returning to normal this year, it’s looking more and more like the NL East will only have one representative this year. With the Mets winners in

Runners Matter Most

There’s a reason this total is so low, and it’s because these teams are excellent at not only run prevention but keeping runners off the basepaths entirely. Both Darvish and Walker have a WHIP under 1, and both teams rank in the top three in ERA.

Getting runners against Walker has been incredibly difficult in 2021, as he hasn’t allowed more than eight this season. Against St. Louis, last month, a single hit and a single run were all the Cardinals managed to get against Walker, who has allowed three walks or hits or less in three of his past four trips to the mound. Darvish hasn’t been quite as sharp in his past two appearances, and it caught up to him against Houston last time out, as he gave up four earned runs to the seven runners he allowed. But in that game, the Padres’ offense came to life and bailed him out. In fact, the offense has really come through for Darvish whenever he’s needed it; over the course of San Diego’s seven-game win streak with Darvish on the mound, the Padres have won six of them by at least two runs.

Changing Identities?

It’s already been well established that New York can’t hit worth anything, and San Diego is a fun, exciting young team. Well, recent incidents might be changing that thinking. On the Mets’ side, it’s looking like their hitters are finally figuring out how to do what they’re paid to do. Against Arizona, not only did the Mets finally figure out how to get Jacob deGrom some run support, but they scored 18 runs in the series and never once scored fewer than five. In Walker’s most recent start, the Mets roughed up Atlanta for 13 runs.

In contrast, San Diego has struggled to string hits together and create runs in the past week. On a stop to Wrigley Field, the Padres scored just six runs for the entire series while getting swept by the Cubs. San Diego has now lost four straight, and even though the Padres were the underdog in three of those games, the fact that they’ve now likely got to do this without Fernando Tatis Jr. after he left the Cubs game with oblique tightness isn’t going to do anything to calm the waters in San Diego. Betting Trends

• The Mets have won four straight against a right-handed starter.
• The Mets are 8-1 in their past nine Thursday games.
• The Padres are 13-3 in their past 16 home games.
• The Padres are 12-5 in their past 17 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Mets’ past four against the NL West.
• The over is 5-1 in the Padres’ past six series openers.
• The over is 12-5 in the past 17 meetings in San Diego.

Weather Report

It should be a great night for baseball in San Diego, with the temperatures at 64 degrees at the first pitch and the wind blowing west-southwest at six miles per hour toward first base.

Dan’s pick

The Mets are playing better baseball right now, and with their hitters actually hitting the ball pretty well and Darvish struggling in his past two outings, I think they’re getting a bit disrespected here. Walker has pitched very well as of late, and San Diego will likely be without Tatis Jr., which could really cripple the Padres’ already-struggling offense. To me, this +155 line feels like a mistake. It’s a good time to take a gamble on the Mets.