New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick 9/1/19

New York Mets (69-66) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (69-65), 9/1/19 Time: 7:05 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 1 Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA Listed Pitchers: Marcus Stroman (7-12, 3.29 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.50, 1.38) TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Mets -120 / Phillies +110 (BetOnline) Over/Under: 9.5

After taking the first two games of this three-game affair, the Mets shoot for the sweep of the Phillies Sunday night in Philly. Both these teams are trying to stay alive in the National League wild-card race, but neither is playing great ball as of late. Who do we like here for today’s baseball pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Stroman at around -120 over Philly and Eflin, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Mets vs. Phillies Set-Up

New York took the opener of this series Friday night 11-5, scoring five runs in the eighth inning and five more in the ninth to break open what was a 1-1 game. The Mets then won Saturday’s contest 6-3, beating former teammate Jason Vargas.

New York cashed in as a +135 dog on the MLB betting line Friday, then won as a -110 favorite Saturday.

With Saturday’s victory, the Mets are now 2-6 over their last eight games.

With Saturday’s loss, Philadelphia is 3-5 over its last eight contests.

At 69-65 overall the Phillies trail first-place Atlanta by 12.5 games in the NL East, with 69-66 New York 13 games back. But Philly and the Mets are only 3.5 and four games behind the Cubs, respectively, in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Philadelphia leads the season series with New York nine games to six.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Eflin, by our strict standards, is 11/22 on quality starts this season, one for two since returning to the rotation after doing time in the bullpen. Eight days ago he held Miami to two runs and six hits through six innings of a 9-3 Phillies victory. But just before that he gave up three runs and seven hits through only 3 2/3 innings of a 5-3 Philadelphia loss to San Diego. On the season Philly is 8-14 when Eflin starts, 1-7 over his last eight starts. In two starts against the Mets earlier this season Eflin got knocked around for ten runs – nine earned – and 15 hits, including four home runs, through nine innings. The Phillies managed to split those two games. Stroman is 11/26 on quality starts this year, 0/5 since joining New York in a trade with Toronto. Tuesday he gave up four runs and six hits, including a couple of dingers, through six innings of a 5-2 Mets loss to the Cubs. And over his five starts for his new team he’s allowed 14 ER and 31 hits through 25 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays went 8-13 with Stroman earlier this season but the Mets, thanks in part to some excellent run support, are 4-1 with him. This start will be Stroman’s first against Philadelphia since 2016 when he was still with Toronto, but that’s a long time ago.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .251/.321/.429 against right-handed pitching this season. The Mets have also scored 17 runs in this series so far. Philadelphia is batting .246/.323/.421 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Mets bullpen owns a 4.94 ERA this season and a 1.45 WHIP while allowing a .796 OPS.

The Phillies pen owns a 4.67 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP while allowing an .804 OPS.

>Neither of these bullpens inspires a whole lot of confidence.

Totals Report

• Overs are 65-57 in Mets games this season.
• Unders are 68-63 in Phillies games this season.
• Unders are 37-33 in games played at Citizens Bank Park this season.
• Overs are 8-5 in Mets-Phillies games this season.
• Unders are a combined 25-22 in games started by Eflin and Stroman this season, but that probably has more to do with high totals than their efforts on the mound.

Free MLB Pick

According to our main baseball handicapping factors, this game is very evenly matched. However, we like playing home teams that are trying to avoid getting swept, and Philadelphia is getting a home-dog price. We see betting value here with the Phillies.