New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

New York Mets (16-15) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (17-16), 5/3/19
Time: 8:10 pm ET
Where: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI
Listed Pitchers: Steven Matz (3-1, 3.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) vs. Brandon Woodruff (3-1, 5.17, 1.47)
TV: SNY, FS Wisconsin
Moneyline: Brewers -115/Mets +105
Under: 8.5

The Brewers just took two of three games from the Mets in NYC last weekend, and now play host to the New Yorkers for a three-game series in Beer City beginning Friday night. Which way are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened Milwaukee and Woodruff at around -130 over New York and Matz, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to around -115 and the total to 8.5.

Mets vs. Brewers Set-Up

New York just split four games at home with Cincinnati, winning Thursday’s series finale 1-0. So the Mets are 1-1-1 over their last three series and 3-5 over their last eight games.

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At 16-15 overall New York sits in second place in the NL East, a game and a half back of first-place Philadelphia.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, just split four games at home with Colorado, winning the first two games Monday and Tuesday but losing Wednesday and Thursday by scores of 11-4 and 11-6. So the Brewers are 1-0-1 over their last two series, and 4-3 over their last seven games.

At 17-16 overall Milwaukee sits in third place in the NL Central, four games behind first-place St. Louis.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season. Last weekend the Brewers took two of three games from the Mets at Citi Field.

Friday’s Starting Arms

Woodruff is 0/6 on quality starts this season, but some of that is due to a short leash. Three times he’s gotten within three outs of a QS, but been pulled. Last Saturday he held this New York team to one run and six hits through five innings of an 8-6 Brewers victory. But just before that he got dinged by the Dodgers for five runs through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-5 Milwaukee defeat.

The Brewers are 4-2 with Woodruff this season.

That winning performance last Saturday was Woodruff’s first career start against the Mets. Unfamiliarity may have worked to his advantage that day, but it’s probably gone now.
Lefty Matz is 3/6 on quality starts this season, and two for his last two. Last Sunday he held this Milwaukee team to two runs and five hits through seven innings of a 5-2 New York victory, and just before that he held the Phillies to one run and three hits through six innings of a 5-1 Mets win.

New York is 5-1 with Matz this season.

Over his last three starts against the Brewers, two last year and last Sunday, Matz allowed five earned runs and 12 hits through 18 1/3 innings. The Mets won all three of those games.

Friday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .242/.325/.390 this season against right-handed pitching. This lineup has also managed to score just one run total over its last two games, and that run came on a solo homer by pitcher Noah Syndergaard.

Milwaukee is batting .254/.328/.465 against left-handed pitching this season. But this lineup could be without its flashiest stick in Christian Yelich, who’s missed the last four games with a sore back.

The Bullpens

The Mets bullpen owns an ugly 5.37 ERA this season, along with a 1.55 WHIP and a 121/56 strikeouts/walks ratio.

The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.85 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 141/63 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

Overs are 18-10-3 in Mets games this season.

Unders are 18-14-1 in Brewers games this season.

Overs are 9-8-1 in games played at Miller Park this season.

Overs are 2-1 in Mets-Brewers games this season.

Overs are a combined 7-4 in games started by Woodruff and Matz this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’ll give New York and Matz the check-mark in this pitching match-up, and with most other things coming out about equal we’ll assign betting value to the Mets. So we’re going with New York and the underdog price for our free MLB pick for Friday.