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New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick

by Darin Zank | Last updated May 27, 2019 | mlb

New York Mets (26-26) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (35-18), 5/27/19
Time: 8:10 pm ET Monday, May 27
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Jake deGrom (3-5, 3.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs. Clay Kershaw (4-0, 3.33, 0.98)
TV: ESPN, SNY, SportsNet LA

Moneyline: Dodgers -165/Mets +155 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 6.5

The Mets and Dodgers open a four-game series at Chavez Ravine with a great pitching match-up Monday night, lefty Cy Young Award winner vs. righty Cy Young Award winner. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Kershaw at around -165 over New York and deGrom, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then dipped that total to 6.5.

Mets vs. Dodgers Set-Up

New York just took two of three games at home from Detroit over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 4-3. Just before that the Mets swept four games at home from Washington. So NY is 6-1 over its last seven games.

At 26-26 overall New York sits in third place in the NL East, 4.5 games behind first-place Philadelphia.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, just swept three games from the Pirates over the weekend, wining Sunday 11-7. Just before that the Dodgers split two games at Tampa Bay; just before that they took two of three games at Cincinnati; and just before that they swept two games at home from San Diego. So LA is 9-2 over its last 11 games.

More Free Picks: Read Kevin West’s Daily Plays

At 35-18 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by seven games over both the Padres and Arizona, and they’re four games up on the Phillies in the battle for the best record in the National League.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year LA took the season series from New York four games to two.

Monday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last June in New York, an 8-3 Dodgers victory. deGrom actually out-pitched Kershaw that day, but LA scored five runs off the Mets bullpen in the eighth inning to break away.

Lefty Kershaw, by our strict standards, is 5/7 on quality starts this season, and two for his last two. Last Tuesday he held the Rays to two runs through 6 1/3 innings, with eight strikeouts, in a 7-3 Dodgers win. And just before that he held San Diego to three runs through seven innings of a 6-3 LA victory.

In fact, the Dodgers are a perfect 7-0 with Kerhaw this season.

In his last start against the Mets, that 8-3 Los Angeles win last June, Kershaw gave up two runs and five hits through just three innings of work.

deGrom is 6/10 on quality starts this season and four for his last five. Last Monday he held Washington to one run and two hits through six innings of a 6-1 New York victory. And over his last five starts, even with a bad outing against Miami two turns ago, deGrom has allowed 10 earned runs 23 hits through 32 innings.

The Mets are only 4-6 with deGrom this season but 2-1 over his last three starts.

In two starts last year against the Dodgers deGrom allowed four runs and seven hits through 12 innings. New York split those two games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .254/.332/.432 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least five runs six times in its last seven games.

Los Angeles is batting .260/.348/.468 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least seven runs five times in its last six games.

The Bullpens

The Mets bullpen owns a 4.29 ERA this season, along with a 1.39 WHIP.

The Dodgers pen owns a 4.45 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

Totals Report

Overs are 26-21 in Mets games this season.

Overs are 28-23 in Dodgers games this season.

Overs are 12-11 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.

Overs are a combined 10-7 in games started by deGrom and Kershaw this season.

Overs finished 4-2 in Mets-Dodgers games last season.

Free MLB Pick

Los Angeles may own short edges in the pitching match-up and in the splits with the sticks but not enough to warrant a price like this. Betting baseball often comes down to betting value and we find value here with New York.