New York Mets (33-35) +135, 8 1/2 at Los Angeles Angels 42-28, 10 pm Eastern Monday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The New York Mets and their beleaguered manager hit the road for a six-game trip through the Western time zone, beginning with three games in Los Angeles vs. the Angels starting Monday night.
Hardball bookies are listing Los Angeles and starting pitcher Jered Weaver (6-6, 4.45) as -150 home favorites for Monday’s series opener, with a total of 8 , while New York and Mike Pelfrey (2-6, 4.24) are getting +135 as road underdogs.
New York split a double-header with Texas Sunday to cap off a 3-3 homestand. So going into this week’s action, the Mets sit in 4th place in the NL East, 6 games behind the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies.
The Angels lost two of three games at home to Atlanta over the weekend, breaking an eight-series winning streak. So heading into this series, Los Angeles leads the AL West by 3 1/2 games over the second-place Oakland A’s.
New York is 13-21 on the road this year, 7-9 as underdogs, and 31-37 vs. the run line.
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LA is 21-16 at home this season, 27-18 as favorites, and 36-34 vs. the run line.
These two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Angels took two of three games in a series at Shea Stadium.
Over his last three starts, including a near-shutout performance last Wednesday vs. Arizona, Pelfrey has given up four ER and 26 baserunners (hits + walks) in 21 IP. The Mets are 4-8 in Pelfrey’s starts this year, the totals 4-7.
In his short ML career, Pelfrey has never started a regular-season game against the Angels.
Over his last three starts, including a solid outing last Tuesday vs. Tampa Bay, Weaver has allowed 11 ER and 27 BR in 18 IP. The Angels are 77 in Weaver’s starts this year, the totals 6-8.
Weaver has never started a regular-season game vs. the Mets.
Offensively speaking, New York ranks 17th in the majors this season in team batting at .257, 10th in team OBP at .333, 20th in team slugging at .392, and is averaging 4.7 runs per game.
LA ranks 21st in batting at .256, 27th in OBP at .318, 23rd in slugging at .386, and is averaging 4.2 RPG. And over their last 24 games, the Angels have managed to score more than five runs just once, when they got six in a win over Tampa Bay last week.
The Mets bullpen has given up 10 ER and 20 BR over its last five games, covering 15 2/3 innings of work.
The LA pen has allowed three ER and 12 BR over its last five games, covering 11 innings of work.
The totals are 36-29 in Mets games this year, 25-42 in Angels games, and 12-24 in games played at Angel Stadium, which are averaging 8.7 total runs this season.
Zman’s Pick: I’m taking the Mets. Pelfrey has looked GOOD lately!