New York Mets (2-4) John Maine, at Colorado Rockies (3-3) Greg
Smith, Coors Field, Denver, Colo., 8:40 PM EST, Tuesday, April 13th,
2010
by Badger of Predictem.com
Betting Line: Mets +135/Rockies -145
Total: 10
The New York Mets hope a trip to the Great Plains and the Rocky
Mountains is the solution to their slow start this season as they
travel to start a three game set against the Colorado Rockies in
Coors Field in Denver on Tuesday.
Game one will feature a couple of young arms on the mound when the Mets send right-hander John Maine out to oppose the Rockies lefty Greg Smith.
The Mets enter the series in Denver after losing two in row to the
Washington Nationals, including a surprising 5-2 loss in the finale
pitched by their ace Johan Santana. The Mets also dropped two out of
three to the Florida Marlins to start the season, including a 7-6
decision the last time Maine trotted out to the bump.
The Rockies come into the series fresh off of a series win over the
San Diego Padres, winning the rubber match Sunday when Ubaldo Jimenez
outdueled Jon Garland for a 4-2 victory. The series win even the
Rockies record at 3-3 after they dropped two on the road in Milwaukee
to start off the season.
The oddsmakers out in Las Vegas opened the game with the Rockies and the journeyman Smith as rather large -145 favorites on the
moneyline, making the Mets and Maine an attractive +135 underdog on
the other side. The total at Coors opened at 10 and has moved up to
10.5 at a majority of the sportsbooks on the Web, but you
can still find 10 with more juice attached (-115 or -120) to the total.
Despite his struggles against the Marlins in the opener (8 H, 4 R, 2
HR in 5 IP), Maine actually has some solid numbers in his favor in
this matchup.
Maines numbers in April (7-4 in 15 starts, .658 OPS, .218 BA) are strong, and his numbers against the Rockies (2-1 in 3 starts, 2.66
ERA, .294 OBP, .320 SLG) are excellent, as well as his history at
Coors Field (1-1, 3.55 ERA, .657 OPS). With all of that to digest,
its sort of a surprise hes such a large dog to the no-name Smith
this evening.
Smith spent all of last year battling injuries, and then made the
Rockies rotation out of Spring Training when the Rockies other lefty,
Jeff Francis, was shut down after arm surgery. Smith pitched okay in
his debut against Milwaukee (4 H, 5 R, 2 HR in 5 IP) in a 7-5 loss,
but hes never faced the Mets or pitched in Coors Field before
(started career in American League), so its hard to figure out why
oddsmakers are so high on the guy.
With a day off yesterday both bullpens should be at full staff and
ready to eat innings if one of the starters cant go very far. So far
the Mets pen has been a little stronger (1.12 WHIP, 1.27 ERA to
Rockies 1.31 and 2.18), and the Rockies are still without closer
Huston Street, so if this game is turned over to the bullpens it
favors the Mets.
The Mets have also played well against the Rockies recently, winning eight of the last 11 head-to-head meetings. The Rockies do hold a 9-3
advantage over the Mets at Coors Field though over the past three
seasons.
There arent too many rock-solid betting trends on the total either,
as the over is a mere 6-5-1 in those same 12 games at Coors Field.
The two have combined to stay under the total in nine of their last
14 games in either park though.
Badgers Pick: I just dont see why Smith is such a big favorite
tonight, especially with his limited history. I guess the oddsmaker thinks the Rockies are that much better than the Mets right now. All of this makes me wishy-washy on picking a side for this game, but if
I had to wager on it Id go with the underdog Mets here at +135.
