New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick 4/14/19

New York Mets (9-5) vs. Atlanta Braves (8-6) 4/14/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Listed Pitchers: Julio Teheran (Atl) vs. Jacob DeGrom (NY)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Mets -155/Braves +145 (BetOnline)
Over/Under: 8.5

The New York Mets took the first two games of a four-game series in Atlanta, but the Braves got on the board with a victory Saturday night. Sunday the Mets throw a Cy Young winner, making Atlanta a significant home dog on the MLB betting line. Which way are we going for our free MLB pick for Sunday?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and DeGrom at around -150 over Atlanta and Teheran, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -160 and the total to 8.5.

The Mets could also be found getting around +105 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Mets vs. Braves Set-Up

New York grabbed the first two games of this series Thursday and Friday by scores of 6-3 and 6-2, but Atlanta took Saturday’s game 11-7. The Braves scored four runs in the bottom of the first inning Saturday, let the Mets score four of their own in the top of the second, then plated four more themselves in the bottom of the second and held on from there.

Also, while the total on Saturday’s game went off at 10, which seemed a bit excessive, it played over that total in the second inning.

Saturday’s loss snapped a three-game winning streak for New York.

Atlanta is 4-2 over its last six games.

This series is the first meeting between these NL East rivals this season. Last season the Braves took 13 of 19 meetings from the Mets.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Teheran (1-1, 6.00) is 0/3 on quality starts this season. He’s got two decent outings under his belt, but he’s yet to pitch more than five innings in any one start. Last time out, last Monday, Teheran gave up six runs and two home runs – all in one inning – through five total frames of a game Atlanta eventually won 8-6. The Braves are 2-1 so far with Teheran this season, with the overs going 3-0.

In five starts last year against the Mets Teheran allowed just six runs and 18 hits through 32 innings. Atlanta went 3-2 in those games, with the unders going 3-2.

DeGrom (2-1, 3.18) is 2/3 on quality starts this season. First, he held Washington scoreless through six innings, with 10 strikeouts. Then he held Miami scoreless through seven, with 14 whiffs. But Tuesday he got knocked around by Minnesota for six runs and eight hits, including three dingers, through four innings of a 14-8 New York defeat. So the Mets are 2-1 with DeGrom this season, with the overs going 2-1.

In six starts last year against the Braves DeGrom allowed just four runs and 26 hits through 41 innings, with 50 strikeouts. And yet, thanks to some non-existent run support, New York went only 1-5 in those games, with the unders going a perfect 6-0.

Based on these starters’ performances last season against Sunday’s opponents it seems runs may be hard to come by.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .250/.338/.418 this season against right-handed pitching. This lineup has also scored at least six runs each of its last seven games.

Atlanta is batting .258/.365/.416 against RH pitching this season. The Braves also banged out 13 hits Saturday, two each by the top five guys in the lineup.

The Bullpens

The Mets bullpen owns a 6.18 ERA so far this season, a 1.75 WHIP and a 57/24 strikeouts/walks ratio.

The Braves bullpen owns a 4.53 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and a 58/30 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

• The overs are 10-3-1 in Mets games this season.
• The unders are 7-6-1 in Braves games this season.
• The unders finished 11-8 in Mets-Braves games last season.
• The unders finished 39-38-4 in games played at SunTrust Park last season.

Free MLB Pick

DeGrom had that great string of quality starts come to an end last time out, one start after throwing 114 pitches. Usually, we would think this would be a good spot to bet DeGrom on the bounce-back, but we are a bit leery, despite his great recent track record against Atlanta. Meanwhile, Teheran has his own great recent line against New York. We’re going with the betting value here and taking the Braves at the home-dog price.