MLB Predictions: Red Sox vs. Orioles Pick 9/9/24

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Date: Monday, September 9th, 7:10 ET
Location: Fenway Park
TV: NESN
Money Line: Orioles +101/Red Sox -120
Total Line: 9.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Boston Red Sox and the Orioles on Monday, September 9th at Fenway Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

The money line odds for Monday’s Orioles vs. Red Sox matchup have Baltimore at +101 compared to the Red Sox at -120. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 PM ET. Brayan Bello is starting for the Red Sox, and the Orioles are going with Cade Povich.

Baltimore is currently on a two-game losing streak, and their record of 82-62 has them in 2nd place in the AL East. Boston is 3rd in the division with a record of 72-71.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Baltimore Orioles: 82-62 SU / OU 77-56 / Runline 78-66
Boston Red Sox: 72-71 SU / OU 73-63 / Runline 66-77

Orioles Records & Recent Play

The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rays with a 2-0 loss. Baltimore was the heavy favorite at -218 going into the game but couldn’t get anything going offensively, as they only had five hits and didn’t score a run. The Orioles also wasted a good start from Corbin Burnes, who took the loss, going six innings and giving up just two runs on seven hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and issued the loss.

Gunnar Henderson was hot at the plate, going 3/4 with a run scored, but the Orioles couldn’t get anything else going. Cedric Mullins was the only other player with more than one hit, going 2/4.

Baltimore is 82-62 overall, putting them just a half-game behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. The Orioles are on the road for today’s game vs. the Red Sox, having dropped two straight games. These two losses came in the final two games of their series with the Rays.

So far, the Orioles have been good vs. other AL East teams, going 29-17 while going 24-14-7 in series this year. As the favorite, the Orioles are 67-47 and 15-15 as the underdog. They have been good on the road this year, putting together a record of 40-29.

When the Orioles are on the road, they have been a good bet to cover the run line, going 42-27. They have an average run margin of 0.9 runs per game on the road, which is better than their overall average run margin of 0.6 runs per game. They have also been a good bet to cover the run line as the underdog, going 21-9.

The Baltimore Orioles are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The O/U line for the game is set at 9.5 runs, which is higher than their season average of 9.2 runs per game. The Orioles have a 77-56 O/U record on the season, and their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs. When the O/U line has been set at 9.5 runs, they have a 6-2 record. Only 2.1% of their games have had an O/U line set at 9.5 runs this season.

Red Sox Records & Recent Play

Boston closed out their series vs. the White Sox with a 7-2 loss. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were the heavy favorite at -282. Things started off well for the Red Sox, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the White Sox scored three times in the top of the 2nd.

Richard Fitts got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 5 2/3 innings, giving up six hits and issuing three walks. Boston’s offense was hot early, as they scored their first run in the 2nd inning but didn’t score again until the 4th.

Boston is 72-71 overall and 3rd in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by 10 games. So far, they are 18-18 in divisional matchups. The Red Sox are at home today, hosting the Orioles, and they are 33-39 at home this year.

The Red Sox have dropped five straight games when listed as the underdog. As the underdog overall, Boston is 33-39 and 39-32 as the favorite. So far, their overall series record is 22-17-6, and they won their most recent series vs. the White Sox.

The Red Sox have been a team to avoid on the run line at home this season, as they are just 26-46 against the run line at Fenway Park. They have been much better against the run line on the road, going 40-31. They have been favored in 71 games and have gone just 26-45 against the run line in those contests. As an underdog, they are 40-32 against the run line.

The Boston Red Sox have played in 114 games this season, and their games have averaged 9.5 runs per game. They have a 73-63 over/under record on the season, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, their games have gone over 12 times and under 14 times. Only 11.2% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher.

Pitching Matchup

Cade Povich will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and got the win. In that September 3rd start vs. the White Sox, he went 7 1/3 innings. Looking at his overall numbers, Povich has made 12 starts and is 2-7 with a 5.76 ERA. Opponents are batting .283 off the left-hander this season. Povich has a total of three quality starts this year. His ERA on the road is 24.39 compared to 3.94 at home. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.13 strikeouts and 3.94 walks.

Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Orioles at home. So far this season, he has made 26 starts and has a record of 12-7 to go along with an ERA of 4.75. Bello’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.38. In his 26 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Bello took the loss after giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One positive note for Bello is that he has allowed just one earned run in three of his last four outings.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Orioles have been the 2nd best home run hitting team in the league and are 4th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .250, which is 9th in the league, and have the top slugging percentage in the league.

Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, with Santander’s 39 homers being the 3rd most in the league and Henderson’s 36 homers being the 6th most. Henderson has been especially hot of late, going 10/24 in his last six games with three homers.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Boston comes into the game with the league’s 6th best home run total and are also near the top of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. One of the reasons for their strong offensive numbers is that they are the league’s top team in terms of BABIP.

Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 28 homers are 1st on the team and 14th in the league. He also leads the Red Sox with 81 RBIs. Devers is batting .278 for the season. Tyler O’Neill has also been a big power threat, as he has 27 homers and has gone 6/20 in his last six games, including two homers.

Free Orioles vs. Red Sox MLB Pick

I wouldn’t read too much into Cade Povich’s last start, as he pitched a great game, but it did come against the lowly White Sox. Before that, he had given up five earned runs in two straight starts and had a 7.36 ERA in August. For Monday night’s AL East matchup, my pick is to take the Red Sox at home on the money line.