MLB Predictions: Can the Brewers Bounce Back Against the Diamondbacks?

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Saturday, September 21st, 7:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: None
Money Line: Diamondbacks -105/Brewers -113
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Diamondbacks on Saturday, September 21st at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are slight favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -113. The Diamondbacks have won three straight and their record is 86-68, which has them 3rd in the NL West.

Arizona will be looking to keep their winning streak alive with Merrill Kelly on the mound, while the Brewers are starting Aaron Civale. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and it should be an exciting game to watch.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Arizona Diamondbacks: 86-68 SU / OU 88-59 / Runline 80-74
Milwaukee Brewers: 88-66 SU / OU 78-66 / Runline 78-76

It was all Arizona in the last game of this series, as the Diamondbacks took down the Brewers by a score of 7-4. The D-backs offense only had two more hits than the Brewers and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -132 on the money line.

Milwaukee got off to a good start in this one, scoring three runs in the first and adding one more in the 2nd. As for the D-backs, they didn’t get on the board until the 5th but exploded for three runs in the 6th and added their final run in the 7th.

Zac Gallen got the win for Arizona, going five innings and giving up four earned runs. He finished the game with just five strikeouts and allowed three home runs. A.J. Puk got the save. DL Hall had a rough outing for the Brewers, taking the loss.

Diamondbacks Records & Recent Play

Arizona is 86-68 overall and is 6.0 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Diamondbacks have taken the first two games of their series vs. the Brewers and have an overall division record of 26-20. They have won three straight games, and this comes after dropping three in a row.

At home, the Diamondbacks are 42-33 this season and have gone 44-35 on the road. As the favorite, Arizona is 51-30 this season and 35-38 as the underdog. The Diamondbacks’ overall series record is 26-19-4, and they lost two straight series before winning their most recent series.

Arizona is 46-33 vs. the run line on the road this season, and they have covered the run line in three straight games. They are 45-28 vs. the run line as an underdog, and their average run margin in winning games is +4.2 runs.

Arizona has played to the over in 34 of 53 games when the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged a combined 10.4 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 88-59 overall. The average O/U line for their games this season is set at 9 runs.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

Milwaukee is currently 88-66 overall and leads the NL Central by nine games over the Cubs. The Brewers have dropped two straight games, and this comes with their overall record of 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central.

At home, the Brewers are 44-32 this season, and they have gone 44-34 on the road. So far, Milwaukee is 10-12 as the home underdog, and they are 37-30 as the underdog overall. As the favorite, the Brewers have gone 51-36 this year.

When it comes to the run line, the Brewers have been a solid bet on the road this season, going 43-35. However, they have struggled at home, going just 35-41. As the underdog, they have been a strong play, going 44-23, while they have been a poor bet as the favorite, going just 34-53. They have been outscored by an average of 0.8 runs per game this season, but that number jumps to -2.8 in their losses.

The Milwaukee Brewers are at home today against the Arizona Diamondbacks with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. Milwaukee’s games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 78-66. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 30-24. So far this season, 30 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 19.5% of their games.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Merrill Kelly gets the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 4-0 with an ERA of 4.00. Kelly has pitched well this year, turning in five quality starts and coming away with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. In his most recent start, he went six innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four outings, he has allowed just one earned run in three of them. Kelly’s ERA at home is 3.80, compared to 4.77 on the road.

Milwaukee is sending right-hander Aaron Civale to the mound today vs. the Diamondbacks. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 7-8 with an ERA of 4.48. So far, Civale has turned in seven quality starts, and his ERA at home is 3.45 compared to 6.61 on the road. In his last outing, Civale went five innings, giving up one earned run and picking up the win. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .255 off Civale this season.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

Arizona’s offense has been the best in the league this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.8 runs per game. Overall, they are 2nd in team batting average (.264), and their on-base percentage of .337 is also the best in the league. The Diamondbacks are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the 2nd best slugging percentage in the MLB.

Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez have been the team’s top power threats this season, with Marte leading the team with 33 homers and Suarez right behind him at 28. Suarez has gone 12/36 in his last nine games, including two homers, and has a four-game hitting streak coming into today’s game.

William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, as Adames is 11th in the league with 32 home runs, and Contreras is 3rd on the team with 23 homers. Adames’ 109 RBIs is 4th in the league, while Contreras has 92 RBIs, which is 15th in the MLB. Adames comes into the game with a batting average of .248, and Contreras is hitting .284.

Over his last nine games, Garrett Mitchell has three home runs and is batting .276. During this stretch, he has scored six runs and driven in six. As a team, the Brewers are 7th in the league in runs per game at 4.8 and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest.

Free Diamondbacks vs. Brewers MLB Pick

Aaron Civale has been really good for the Brewers at home since being traded to them this summer. He is looking to get the Brewers back on track, who have been scuffling since they clinced the NL-Central earlier this week. I see Milwaukee taking this one, and would go with them on the money line.