MLB Predictions: Braves vs. Mets – Sweep at Citi Field?

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Date: Sunday, May 12th, 7:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Braves -126/Mets +105
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the New York Mets and the Braves on Sunday, May 12th at Citi Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:10 PM from Citi Field in New York, we have an NL East matchup between the Braves and Mets. The Braves are sending Bryce Elder to the mound up against Luis Severino for the Mets. Coming into the game, the Braves have a record of 24-12, while the Mets are 18-20.

There does appear to be a chance of rain in New York on Sunday night, with the forecasted temperature being 50 degrees. The over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the Braves are the favorite on the money line at -126.

Braves vs. Mets Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Atlanta Braves: 24-12 SU / OU 12-22 / Runline 19-17
New York Mets: 18-20 SU / OU 18-20 / Runline 19-19

The most recent game o of this Mets and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Mets rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 4-1 on the road. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -160 on the money line.

Max Fried pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and striking out five without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Christian Scott took the loss for the Mets, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work.

Atlanta’s offense was led by Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II, as they were the only two Braves hitters to have more than one hit. Arcia and Harris each scored two runs and drove in a run for the Braves attack.

Braves Records & Recent Play

After taking the first two games of the series vs. the Mets, the Braves will go for the series sweep today. Overall, the Braves are 24-12, putting them two games behind the Phillies in the NL East. So far, they have gone 10-4 in divisional games.

At home, the Braves have been really good, going 13-4 this year. On the road, they are 11-8 and have won two straight away from home. The Braves have been good in day games this year, putting together a record of 10-4.

The Braves are 19-17 against the run line this season, and they have covered in two straight games on the road. They are 11-8 against the run line on the road this season. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.5, while it is -3.2 in losses.

Despite the over/under line being set at 7.5 runs, the Braves have had five consecutive games go under that total. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 12-22. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs per game, and 83.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.

Mets Records & Recent Play

With an overall record of 18-20, the Mets are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by nine games. The Mets have dropped two straight games, and they are also down 0-2 in their series vs. the Braves. So far, they are 2-3 in divisional games this year.

At home, the Mets are 9-12 this year, and they are just above .500 at 9-8 on the road. As the home underdog, the Mets are just 1-4 this year, and they are 10-9 when favored. New York has dropped two straight as the underdog, and their overall series record is 6-5-1.

The Mets are an even 19-19 against the run line this season, but they have been a better bet on the road, going 11-6. They are just 8-13 against the run line at home, and they have failed to cover in their last three home games. They are 8-11 against the run line as the favorite and 11-8 as the underdog.

With an average combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season, the New York Mets have seen their games go over the total in 18 of their 38 contests. However, their last two games have gone under the total, and the Mets have played in just 18.4% of their games with an over/under line set at 7.5 runs.

Pitching Matchup

Getting the start for the Braves is Bryce Elder, who is on the road to take on the Mets. Elder has made 3 starts so far this season, with his most recent outing coming against the Dodgers, where he took the loss. In that game, he went 3 1/3 innings, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits, and he struck out 4. Elder’s first start of the season was a win vs. the Marlins, as he went 6 2/3 innings, giving up 0 runs on 8 hits.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes into the game with a record of 2-2 and ERA of 2.92. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 8.32 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had gone eight innings without giving up an earned run. Opponents are batting .196 off Severino this season. At home, his ERA is 2.08 compared to 4.5 on the road.

Braves vs. Mets Offense Outlook

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 12 home runs leads the MLB. He is also batting .319 for the season and comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak. Over his last seven games, Ozuna has gone 8/26 with three homers and six RBIs. Travis d’Arnaud is also swinging a hot bat for the Braves, as he is hitting .270 for the season and has gone deep five times.

As a team, the Braves are 5th in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been especially good at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they have the 4th best team batting average in the league at .255. Not only are the Braves near the top of the league in home runs, but they are also one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts.

So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. However, they have been a much better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .234, which is 13th in the league, and are 9th in the league in home runs. New York’s team on-base percentage of .310 is also 14th in the league.

Over his last five games, Brandon Nimmo has gone 5/17 with two homers and has driven in five runs. This has helped him take over the team lead in RBIs, as he has 25 for the season. Pete Alonso is 3rd on the team in RBIs (20) and has a team-high nine homers, but is batting just .215 this season.

Free Braves vs. Mets MLB Pick

Our predicted final score for this game is 5-4 in favor of the Braves, and we would recommend taking them on the money line, where you can get them at -126. Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Bryce Elder finishing with more strikeouts than Luis Severino, and we have Severino ending up with five K’s.