MLB Picks: Nationals vs. Marlins 6/9/22

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins
Date: Thursday June 9th, 06:40 ET
Location: LoanDepot park
TV: MASN
Money Line: Nationals +105 / Marlins -125 (Get the best lines >>>)
Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Washington: Stephen Strasburg (0-0, 0) Miami: Trevor Rogers (2-5, 5.8)

Nationals Projected Lineup

Keibert Ruiz C Luis Garcia SS Josh Bell 1B Maikel Franco 3B Juan Soto RF Victor Robles CF Nelson Cruz CF César Hernández 2B Lane Thomas LF Stephen Strasburg P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Jon Berti CF Miguel Rojas SS Avisaíl García RF Jesus Sanchez CF Jacob Stallings C Jorge Soler LF Jesús Aguilar 1B Jasrado Chisholm Jr. 2B Garrett Cooper 1B Trevor Rogers P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Washington Nationals: 21-36-0 SU / OU 28-27-3 / Run Line W/L 23-35-0 Miami Marlins: 23-30-0 SU / OU 27-26-1 / Run Line W/L 28-26-0

The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals on Thursday, June 9th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Miami as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Nationals will look to rebound from a close, 2-1 loss to the Marlins. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 2 runs while allowing 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 1 run on 7 hits. The loss came as Washington was the betting underdog, getting 170.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Nationals and Marlins stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. Even after this game, Washington’s overall over-under record sits at 28-27-3.

The Nationals are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. However, even with an above .500 record (last 5) their run differential sits at just -5 (last 5). Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.02 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 5.2. Washington’s overall series record is just 4-13-1.

The Marlins will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Nationals by a score of 2-1. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Nationals to 1 run and 7 hits. The Marlins’ offense ended the game with just 2 runs on 9 hits. In the game, Miami was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -200.0. So far, the team has won 55% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Marlins and Nationals’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Miami still has an above .500 over-under record at (27-26-1).

In their last 5 games, the Marlins have put together a record of 3-2. They have managed to pick up these wins despite having a negative run differential in their last 5 games (-1). Miami has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 5.2 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.43. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 6-11-1.

Pitching Matchup

For the Nationals, starter Stephen Strasburgh will be making his first appearance of the year. Last year, Strasburg only pitched 21 innings, leading to a 1-2 record and 4.57 ERA. If Strasburg can’t work deep into the game, the Nationals will turn things over to a bullpen with the 26th rated ERA (4.60).

Miami will roll with Trevor Rogers (2-5) as their starter. So far, Rogers has put together an ERA of 5.8. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.5 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.274. Home runs have been an issue for Rogers, as he is allowing an average of 1.6 per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Rogers has a strikeout percentage of just 19.0% and a per game average of 3.9. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.2 walks per outing.

Washington vs Miami History

Today’s matchup between the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins will be their 9th meeting of the season. Currently, Miami is winning the season series 7-1. Through 8th games, the series’ over-under record is 3-5, with the average run total sitting at 8.89 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.38 runs. Going back to last year, Washington won the season series, 11 games to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-8. Last year, the Nationals and Marlins averaged 8.89 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.95 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington’s last 16 games Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s matchup between Washington and Miami, the big story will be how Stephen Strasbrugh looks in his season debut. Even with a favorable matchup against the Marlins, I am not expecting much out of the right-hander. On the other side, Trevor Rogers has a FIP sitting at 1.56. In terms of betting, I like the over at 8 runs.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8 Runs