MLB Picks: Nationals vs. Giants Pick 7/9/21

Washington Nationals (42-44) vs. San Francisco Giants (54-32)

When: 9:45 p.m., Friday, July 9

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Moneyline: WAS +150/SF -160 (Find the best sportsbooks >>> 100% Bonuses! Reduced Odds! FASTEST Payouts!)

Runline: Nats +1.5/Giants -1.5

Total: 9

Starting Pitchers: Paolo Espino (2-2, 2.48 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs. Logan Webb (4-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)

California Nightmarin’

The Nationals have to be getting sick of seeing teams from California on their schedule, as they’re now on their third straight series against a team from the Golden State. Playing anyone from California hasn’t been fun in 2021, as all five California teams are over .500 this season, but it’s been especially nightmarish against the NL teams. All three seem to realize they’re competing with each other to stay out of the wild card game, something that only one of them can achieve.

On the other hand, the Nats are trying to get themselves back in the race in a mediocre NL East. The Mets’ lack of hitting has kept them from putting the division away the way the Brewers have in the NL Central, and the Nationals have an opportunity if they can stay within six games at the All-Star break. But to do that, they’ve got to get out of San Francisco with at least two out of three, no easy task after already going to San Diego and having to face Los Angeles at home before they came out to the West Coast.

Breaking Out the Bats?

The one good thing about playing the Padres after facing the Dodgers is that San Diego just can’t pitch as well as Los Angeles, and Washington exploited that in a big way to arrive in San Francisco on a hot streak. Against the Padres, the Nats plated 34 runs, even getting 15 in one game after scoring just 11 in their entire four-game home series with the Dodgers.

Still, that’s only moved Washington up to 18th in runs per game, and the joy might be short-lived considering what’s up next. San Francisco pitches better than anyone in baseball except for the Dodgers, and low-scoring games have been a hallmark of meetings between these two this year. When the Giants came out to Washington, 11 was the combined total of runs in four games from both teams. The highest-scoring game in the series was a 5-0 win for Washington, and at least one team got shut out in three out of four games. Put simply, if the Nats are expecting to keep the good times rolling with the bats, there’s a good chance that they’ve got another thing coming.

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Health Question

Low-scoring games are just fine with San Francisco starter Logan Webb, who was rolling pretty nicely through most of his past ten starts. The Giants have won seven of his past ten trips to the hill, and as long as he’s kept away from extreme hitters’ parks, he’s done quite well for himself in terms of run prevention.

In eight of his past ten trips to the hill, Webb has given up three runs or less and gone at least five innings, usually more. The two exceptions were at Coors Field and Citizens Bank Park, two of the toughest parks in the majors for pitching. Even in those instances, the only start he made that could really be considered terrible was in a 6-5 loss to the Rockies in May.

But Webb hasn’t pitched since the end of May, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL after his most recent start. How long the Giants plan to stick with him in his first game back is really anyone’s guess.

Betting Trends

• The Nationals are 2-6 in their past eight games.
• The Nationals are 7-3 in their last ten road games.
• The Giants have won six straight Friday games.
• The Giants are 17-6 in their past 23 series openers.
• The over is 4-0 in the Nationals’ past four games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Giants’ past four games after an off day.
• The Nationals have won four straight in San Francisco.
• The under is 18-7-1 in the teams’ past 26 meetings in San Francisco.

Weather Report

It’s July in San Francisco, which means cool temperatures getting cooler as the night continues. Temperatures will start at 66 degrees, with the wind blowing out to left-center at nine miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

The Nationals have been swinging hot bats as of late, but that’s more likely because they were facing the hittable Padres as opposed to the Dodgers’ beast of a rotation. San Francisco has been almost as stingy as Los Angeles, and odds are that the Giants will keep this game fairly low-scoring.

I think the under is a likely hit, and I’ll take the Giants to get the win here. Bet your baseball picks FREE for the next week by scoring a massive 100% bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook!