MLB Picks: LA Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers (10-3) vs. San Diego Padres

When: 8:40 p.m., Saturday, April 23

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

Moneyline: LAD-120/SD +100

Runline: Dodgers -1.5/Padres +1.5

Total: 8

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Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson (1-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Yu Darvish (1-1, 6.28 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)

Holding Down the Score

After two games of holding the opponent to a single run, it’s clear that the Dodgers’ pitching staff is doing a lot more to succeed than simply playing the Reds. Cincinnati might have a complete mess of an offense, but Atlanta and San Diego are known for being decent hitters and still couldn’t plate anything against the Dodgers’ pitching staff.

Over the past nine games, the Dodgers have only allowed 16 runs to cross the plate, and only twice have they allowed a team to plate more than three runs in a game. Los Angles has built its dynasty in the NL West on the backs of first-rate pitching, and the Dodgers appear to have it again with this year’s squad, especially when the game gets into the later innings. Only St. Louis, San Francisco, and the Yankees have seen their bullpen perform better than the Dodgers’ relievers, who boast an ERA of 2.25.

One Out of the Way

The Padres are certainly hoping that Darvish got his ugly start out of the way a week ago against the Giants, as he got tagged for nine runs and didn’t make it out of the second inning in a loss to San Francisco. However, if the past is any indication, that instance was likely nothing but a blip on the radar for a normally reliable pitcher.

Last year, Darvish came out with one horrible performance in April but then dominated the rest of the month, giving up just five runs in 33.1 innings after getting blasted in that first game. So far, he’s responded the same way as last year to his poor outing, as he responded by holding the Braves to just one home run through 6.2 innings in his most recent start. If the same holds again, Darvish should be sharp from start to finish.

Fanning the Flames

If Darvish is on, there’s a good chance at another prop play hitting: the number of strikeouts he records and the number of strikeouts the Dodgers end up with in this game. Darvish came up with eight strikeouts against Atlanta in his most recent start, and he never failed to record at least six K’s against the Dodgers in five appearances against Los Angeles a year ago.

And that’s an impressive stat because the Dodgers really don’t strike out all that often. Los Angeles only has 100 strikeouts to its name for the season, which ranks seventh-best in baseball at putting the ball in play. That said, the Padres tend to go looking for strikeouts, as only the Mets have more K’s on the year than the Padres. Los Angeles might not fan that often, but if Darvish gives the San Diego bullpen a chance to get set up and only face the Dodgers one time through the lineup in the final three innings, there’s a good chance to hit the strikeout props in this one.

Betting Trends

• The Dodgers are 57-20 in their past 77 games overall.
• The Dodgers are 40- 17 in their past 57 games following a win.
• The Padres are 14-37 in their past 51 games as an underdog.
• The Padres are 3-8 in their past 11 games during Game 2 of a series.
• The under is 5-1-1 in the Dodgers’ past seven road games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ past four Saturday games.
• The under is 6-1 in the Padres’ past seven games overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Padres’ past five Saturday games.
• The Dodgers have won 20 of the last 28 meetings with San Diego.
• The under is 3-0-1 in the teams’ past four meetings in San Diego.

Weather Report

It’s actually going to be a bit chilly by the standards of San Diego, with temperatures at 56 degrees and a mild breeze blowing toward the first base line at just three miles per hour.

Dan’s pick

Riding the Dodgers and the under appears to be the way to go right now, as Los Angeles is holding teams’ offenses in check regardless of who it comes up against. The Dodgers have the pitching needed to keep the Padres’ bats silent, and they’ll have no problem playing out a bullpen game should the situation call for that.

I think the Dodgers have the deeper pitching staff and should get the job done. I’ll take the Dodgers and the under here. Bet your Dodgers vs. Padres prediction for free by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $500 at Betnow Sportsbook when you use bonus code PREDICTEM.