MLB Picks: Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros (4-2) vs. Seattle Mariners (3-4)

When: 9:42 p.m., Friday, April 15

Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle

Moneyline: HOU -130/SEA +110

Runline: Astros -1.5/Mariners +1.5

Total: 8.5

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Starting Pitchers: Jake Odorizzi (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) vs. Marco Gonzales (0-1, 9.00 ERA, 4.00 WHIP)

Balsa Bats

The problem with the 2022 Mariners is the same one that plagued the 2021 Mariners: this team still cannot hit the ball. Seattle is one of five teams with a batting average below .200, and only Baltimore, Miami, and Arizona have fewer runs to their name (and Miami has played in one game fewer than the Mariners) than Seattle’s 16. Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez were supposed to help fix the offense, but they’ve instead taken on the performance of those around them, hitting a combined 7-for-44 in their first week in Seattle. Adam Frazier and Mitch Haniger aren’t hitting either, with both having batting averages under .150.
So far, Seattle’s offense has essentially consisted of getting a hit from J.P. Crawford and hoping Ty France can drive him in or Haniger can get one out of the park. Out of the Mariners’ 16 runs, 11 have been knocked in by France or Haniger, as the latter has just four hits, with three of them being home runs. If Haniger doesn’t homer, the Mariners don’t seem to have a plan B the rest of the way. They’re 2-1 when Haniger hits one out and 1-3 when he doesn’t, not exactly a great formula for winning baseball games.

Nothing Comes Easy

If you’ve been backing the under with the Astros, you’ve had a pretty good week. Houston has played six games so far, and five of them have seen under 5.5 cash, with the lone exception being a 13-6 win over the Angels in their second game.

Of course, that was the game that Odorizzi pitched, but you’ve got to take a deeper look at the numbers to see the true story of that game. Other than a rocky first inning, Odorizzi was solid in four innings against the Angels, and the bullpen picked him up nicely, holding the Angels to one earned run in the final five innings. The problem was that they also allowed three unearned runs from errors, which made the score look a lot worse than it really was. Seattle isn’t likely to be as poor on the mound as the Angels were, however, which says that another Houston under could be in the cards here. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time: Odorizzi faced the Mariners three times down the stretch last season and held Seattle to two runs or less in all three appearances.

Long Starved Fans

The fact that this marks Seattle’s first home game of the season — a season in which Mariners fans expect the 21-year playoff drought to finally hit its end — creates a new sort of pressure for when Seattle takes the field in front of its fans. Not only do Seattle fans finally get to see their Mariners, but they’re seeing them take on the Houston team that they nearly chased down for a playoff spot a season ago. That could give the Mariners a big boost — which could be a definite help to their struggling bats at this point in the season.

Betting Trends

• The Astros are 5-1 in their past six games against the AL West.
• The Astros are 5-2 in their past seven road games.
• The Mariners are 5-1 in their past six Friday games.
• The Mariners are 21-8 in their past 29 against the AL West.
• The under is 4-0 in the Astros’ past four games overall.
• The under is 6-1-1 in the Astros’ past eight games as a favorite.
• The over is 9-3 in the Mariners’ past 12 home games.
• The under is 5-2 in the Mariners’ past seven series openers.
• The under is 9-4-1 in the past 14 meetings in Seattle.
• The Astros are 25-11 in their past 36 meetings in Seattle.

Weather Report

With temperatures dipping into the lower 40s, look for the Mariners to close the roof and take weather out of the equation.

Dan’s pick

I think the under is the best play on the board, as I can’t see Seattle breaking out of its slump against a pitcher who has done well against them in recent appearances. If the value were a little higher than +110 on the Mariners, I’d say they’d be worth a look, but Houston has played so well in Seattle in recent years, and the Mariners just are not hitting at the moment.
I’ll back Houston to win another low-scoring game. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by scoring a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook when you use PREDICT100 when you register for your new betting account!