MLB Picks: Giants vs. Phillies Predictions 5/5/24

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Sunday, May 5th, 7:10 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: ESPN
Money Line: Giants -121/Phillies +101
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Giants on Sunday, May 5th at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

At 7:10 PM from Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have an NL matchup between the Giants and Phillies. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Giants are 15-19 compared to the Phillies at 23-11. San Francisco is currently favored on the money line at -121.

Looking at the over/under line, it is at 7.5 runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup features Logan Webb for the Giants and Taijuan Walker for the Phillies. You can catch this one on ESPN.

Giants vs. Phillies Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Francisco Giants: 15-19 SU / OU 15-17 / Runline 15-19
Philadelphia Phillies: 23-11 SU / OU 15-17 / Runline 17-17

Philadelphia cruised to a 14-3 win over the Giants in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 2nd inning, scoring five of their ten runs. As for the Giants, they scored their only three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -176 on the money line.

Ranger Suarez started for the Phillies and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued a season-high five walks. Keaton Winn only went two-thirds of an inning for the Giants and took the loss, giving up five earned runs on four hits.

Offensively, the Phillies were led by Whit Merrifield and Bryson Stott, as they were the only two Phillies hitters to have more than one hit. Merrifield, Stott, Kyle Schwarber, and Johan Rojas each had two RBIs for Philadelphia’s offense.

Giants Records & Recent Play

San Francisco is on the road today vs. the Phillies, coming in with a record of 15-19, which has them 3rd in the NL West. They are 6.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Giants have dropped two straight games, and they are 4-6 across their last 10 games.

So far, the Giants are 9-7 at home compared to 6-12 on the road. As the favorite, San Francisco is 10-9 this year and 5-10 as the underdog. The Giants’ overall series record is 4-4-2, and they have dropped two straight as the road team.

San Francisco is 9-9 against the run line on the road this season, but they have failed to cover in their last game. The Giants are 6-13 against the run line as the favorite this season, and their average run differential in their losses is -4.5 runs per game.

When the Giants and Phillies met earlier this season, the over/under line was set at 7.0 runs, and the game ended with 17 runs scored. This season, the Giants have played 32 games, and 15 of them have gone over the over/under line, while 17 have gone under. The average over/under line for their games this season is 8.0 runs.

Phillies Records & Recent Play

Philadelphia is currently leading the NL East with a record of 23-11, and they hold a 1.5-game lead over the Braves for the division lead. The Phillies are on a four-game winning streak, and they are 8-2 over their last 10 games. This includes taking the first game of their series vs. the Giants.

So far, the Phillies are 3-3 in divisional games, and they have won eight straight games at home. At home, they are 12-6 this year compared to an 11-5 mark on the road. For the season, they have been really good as the favorite, putting together a mark of 19-8.

Philadelphia has a run differential of +1.1 runs per game this season, and they have a run line record of 17-17. They are 8-10 against the run line at home, where they have an average scoring margin of +0.9 runs per game. The Phillies are 9-7 against the run line on the road, where they have an average scoring margin of +1.4 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog, and they are 4-3 against the run line as the underdog this season.

With a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game, the Philadelphia Phillies have seen a majority of their games go over the over/under line this season. In fact, 15 of their 23 games have had higher lines than today’s 7.5 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 15-17. Their last game against the Giants went over the 7.0 run line, and their previous two games went under the 7.5 run line.

Pitching Matchup

Giants starter Logan Webb will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Red Sox, where he took the loss and gave up four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Webb’s ERA for the season is 2.98, along with a record of 3-2. At home, he is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.86 compared to 1-2 with a 6.59 ERA on the road. For the season, he has made five quality starts and is averaging 6.38 strikeouts per nine innings.

Taijuan Walker and the Phillies are at home against the Giants today. Walker is coming off a win in his first start of the season, where he went 6 1/3 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. He struck out 8 and gave up 2 home runs.

Giants vs. Phillies Offense Outlook

Thairo Estrada has been swinging a hot bat for the Giants, going 7/20 in his last five games with four RBIs. He is also on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, Estrada is batting .254 with four homers, which is 13th in the league. Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler are tied for the team lead with five homers, but both players are batting just .250 and .202, respectively.

As a team, the Giants are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.4 runs per contest. San Francisco’s team batting average is .239, and they are just 18th in on-base percentage. Overall, they are just 17th in slugging percentage and 21st in isolated power.

Heading into today’s game, the Phillies offense is 7th in the league in runs per game at 4.9. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and are batting .255 as a team, which is 5th in the league. Alec Bohm has been on a tear of late, going 19/39 in his last 10 games, including one home run and 13 RBIs. Bohm is currently leading the team in RBIs and is 2nd in home runs.

Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh are tied for 2nd on the team with six homers apiece, but Harper is batting just .234 this season, and he has gone just 6/28 in his last nine games. Kyle Schwarber is 3rd in the league with eight homers, but he is batting just .212 this season.

Free Giants vs. Phillies MLB Pick

Given the payout and the fact that we have the Giants winning this game, we recommend taking them on the money line, with the payout being -121. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Giants.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Logan Webb is projected to finish with four strikeouts, while Taijuan Walker is projected to finish with five. However, we have Walker finishing with a higher ERA than Webb, and we also have the Giants finishing with more home runs than the Phillies.